Moxie Mastery Final Review -- 16 out of 48 trades were winners (mostly small)
Coin flipping has a higher win rate.
I canceled my subscription a couple of weeks ago and it will end in less than 2 weeks. It started Feb 22. Even with reduced sizing, in my nearly 3 months in Moxie Mastery I lost almost all I had gained day trading in Jan and Feb. My final opinion is that the indicator and strategy seem fine. They seem to have profitable results when the rules are followed. The alert service is a money wasting distraction, though I am more comfortable with the strategy than I was when I started.
The alert service is not good in sideways or down-trending markets. He had a great H2 2020 when every name was going up. He had a great time after the election in Nov through Feb when things liberals like to spend money on were going up. Since then his alerts have been consistently losing.
He cannot trade this market.
The main problem with the alert service is that TG Watkins is not comfortable going short, has a fear of shorting, has admitted repeatedly that shorting just doesn't work for him so he doesn't try it much. Therefore, he has a permanent long bias. He uses a reversal pattern on the hourly chart, which seems to work fine in up-trend continuation, to get into long positions in down-trending stocks which quickly continue downward. He does this while the Moxie indicator, which is a momentum indicator, never shows any hint of reduced selling on the daily chart. He's going long on stocks in which Moxie is well below zero and hasn't shown any green in more than 2 months.
In addition to constantly going long in down-trending stocks, many of his alerts break the rules of his own strategy. If you watch his videos from the last year or two you'll hear him repeatedly say "don't trade the X," meaning when price crosses above the hourly 50 SMA don't immediately go long but instead wait for it to retest the 50 SMA and confirm it as support, then go long. His alerts very often do not wait for the retest and when the retest happens and fails, price continues lower and he gets stopped out or he alerts an early exit before getting stopped out.
Up until late April he was lazy and complacent, trading the same stocks that gave him gains in Nov-Feb. Electric vehicles, green energy, marijuana, block chain. Almost all of those stocks have been in multiple-month downtrends and are back to where they were before that run started. While he was alerting losing trades in those, I found winning trades using his strategy in BA, EBAY, FB and other names. I voiced my displeasure with him alerting rule-breaking entries which became a bigger/longer negative conversation than I intended it to be when some of his apostles attacked me for criticizing their idol. While that blew up bigger than I intended, and I felt a little sorry for TG, it did serve to wake him up to stop looking at the same list of stocks, do some scanning, realize which sectors were moving and get a fresh perspective. He also took the rules more seriously, which I let him know I appreciated, but that only lasted for a few days and he was back to alerting rule-breaking trades.
Here's the evidence to back up my conclusion
Since I joined the Moxie Mastery alert service, TG Watkins alerted 48 trades. Of those 48, 16 were winners. Almost all of those winners were small. The average time in a trade was 4.6 calendar days. The cumulative return was -56% if all the trades were taken with equal sizing but you can see from the data below they were not. The average return was -1%. These are based on his entries and exits. Yours would be worse.
These stats are based on the spreadsheet he maintains as part of the Mastery service which has his entry and exit prices. These prices are almost always better than the prices you'll get since he alerts after he already executed the trades in the many accounts he's managing for himself and his father and sister. He enters all of his trades for the day, in all the accounts, then writes up a summary of why he took a trade, with screen shots of the charts, then posts an alert. Then writes the next summary with screen shot and posts an alert. Rinse repeat with a few minutes between each. Sometimes the alert comes an hour after he entered. You almost always end up with a worse entry price even if you're fast enough to beat the others in the room into the stock. Depending on other volume, these alerts sometimes cause a pop and the slower you are to get in the worse your price will be. On exits, he's already out before he sends the alert.
Date Open | Name | Direction | Entry | Stop | Size | Status | Date Closed | Exit | Win | Days | Gain | % |
5/5/2021 | FB | Short | $316.37 | $321.20 | 5% | Closed | 5/6/2021 | $318.85 | 0 | 1 | ($2.48) | -1% |
4/29/2021 | BLNK | Long | $37.90 | $35.85 | 5% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $38.13 | 1 | 1 | $0.23 | 1% |
4/29/2021 | GNRC | Long | $335.90 | $319.50 | 5% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $324.00 | 1 | 1 | ($11.90) | -4% |
4/29/2021 | RBLX | Long | $76.85 | $72.70 | 10% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $75.14 | 0 | 1 | ($1.71) | -2% |
4/29/2021 | TKAT | Long | $37.90 | $35.85 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $36.12 | 0 | 1 | ($1.78) | -5% |
4/27/2021 | YALA | Long | $23.86 | $22.00 | 5% | Closed | 4/29/2021 | $22.00 | 0 | 2 | ($1.86) | -8% |
4/26/2021 | FSR | Long | $14.18 | $13.20 | 10% | Closed | 4/27/2021 | $13.56 | 0 | 1 | ($0.62) | -4% |
4/26/2021 | NVAX | Long | $220.17 | $203.65 | 3% | Closed | 4/27/2021 | $259.82 | 0 | 1 | $39.65 | 18% |
4/26/2021 | NVAX | Long | $220.17 | $225.00 | 10% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $242.50 | 1 | 4 | $22.33 | 10% |
4/26/2021 | ROKU | Long | $363.70 | $345.65 | 10% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $345.65 | 1 | 4 | ($18.05) | -5% |
4/26/2021 | SNAP | Long | $60.09 | $57.00 | 5% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $62.18 | 0 | 4 | $2.09 | 3% |
4/23/2021 | AMC | Long | $10.20 | $9.27 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $10.00 | 1 | 7 | ($0.20) | -2% |
4/23/2021 | MOMO | Long | $14.96 | $14.48 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $14.48 | 0 | 7 | ($0.48) | -3% |
4/23/2021 | SNAP | Long | $59.93 | $57.00 | 5% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $62.18 | 0 | 7 | $2.25 | 4% |
4/23/2021 | UAVS | Long | $5.72 | $5.08 | 5% | Closed | 4/30/2021 | $5.86 | 1 | 7 | $0.14 | 2% |
4/14/2021 | FUTU | Long | $150.35 | $141.75 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/15/2021 | $145.78 | 1 | 1 | ($4.57) | -3% |
4/14/2021 | GNRC | Long | $333.00 | $322.80 | 5% | Closed | 4/15/2021 | $326.23 | 0 | 1 | ($6.77) | -2% |
4/14/2021 | TNA | Long | $92.89 | $88.30 | 5% | Closed | 4/15/2021 | $92.05 | 0 | 1 | ($0.84) | -1% |
4/13/2021 | OUT | Long | $22.73 | $21.83 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/15/2021 | $23.28 | 0 | 2 | $0.55 | 2% |
4/6/2021 | CCIV | Long | $24.76 | $21.65 | 5% | Closed | 4/8/2021 | $22.92 | 1 | 2 | ($1.84) | -7% |
4/6/2021 | SPCE | Long | $30.75 | $27.90 | 5% | Closed | 4/8/2021 | $28.68 | 0 | 2 | ($2.07) | -7% |
4/5/2021 | DNN | Long | $1.28 | $1.06 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/12/2021 | $1.06 | 0 | 7 | ($0.22) | -17% |
4/5/2021 | GNRC | Long | $326.05 | $304.50 | 5% | Closed | 4/12/2021 | $323.52 | 0 | 7 | ($2.53) | -1% |
4/5/2021 | MVIS | Long | $15.51 | $12.90 | 5% | Closed | 4/12/2021 | $13.66 | 0 | 7 | ($1.85) | -12% |
4/5/2021 | RIOT | Long | $56.94 | $48.00 | 5% | Closed | 4/8/2021 | $48.09 | 0 | 3 | ($8.85) | -16% |
4/5/2021 | UAVS | Long | $7.12 | $5.95 | 5% | Closed | 4/12/2021 | $6.13 | 0 | 7 | ($0.99) | -14% |
3/30/2021 | FUBO | Long | $22.04 | $20.55 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/1/2021 | $23.41 | 0 | 2 | $1.37 | 6% |
3/30/2021 | FUBO | Long | $22.04 | $20.55 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/8/2021 | $20.55 | 1 | 9 | ($1.49) | -7% |
3/30/2021 | NNDM | Long | $8.34 | $7.80 | 2.50% | Closed | 4/8/2021 | $7.80 | 0 | 9 | ($0.54) | -6% |
3/17/2021 | MARA | Long | $41.68 | $34.75 | 5% | Closed | 3/22/2021 | $41.20 | 0 | 5 | ($0.48) | -1% |
3/17/2021 | NIO | Long | $44.63 | $40.90 | 5% | Closed | 3/18/2021 | $41.71 | 0 | 1 | ($2.92) | -7% |
3/17/2021 | QS | Long | $59.76 | $53.80 | 10% | Closed | 3/18/2021 | $56.40 | 0 | 1 | ($3.36) | -6% |
3/17/2021 | SKLZ | Long | $29.20 | $25.60 | 10% | Closed | 3/18/2021 | $26.12 | 0 | 1 | ($3.08) | -11% |
3/17/2021 | SNDL | Long | $1.56 | $1.28 | 5% | Closed | 3/22/2021 | $1.36 | 0 | 5 | ($0.20) | -13% |
3/17/2021 | SPCE | Long | $33.69 | $30.20 | 5% | Closed | 3/18/2021 | $31.87 | 0 | 1 | ($1.82) | -5% |
3/12/2021 | ANGI | Long | $16.03 | $15.10 | 7% | Closed | 3/23/2021 | $16.41 | 0 | 11 | $0.38 | 2% |
3/10/2021 | COMM | Long | $15.29 | $14.30 | 2% | Closed | 3/11/2021 | $16.70 | 1 | 1 | $1.41 | 9% |
3/10/2021 | COMM | Long | $15.29 | $15.00 | 3% | Closed | 3/23/2021 | $15.14 | 1 | 13 | ($0.15) | -1% |
3/10/2021 | KOSS | Long | $29.65 | $21.00 | 2.50% | Closed | 3/11/2021 | $25.52 | 0 | 1 | ($4.13) | -14% |
3/9/2021 | AI | Long | $85.16 | $79.11 | 5% | Closed | 3/18/2021 | $79.11 | 0 | 9 | ($6.05) | -7% |
3/9/2021 | CCIV | Long | $24.22 | $20.80 | 5% | Closed | 3/12/2021 | $27.20 | 0 | 3 | $2.98 | 12% |
3/9/2021 | GNUS | Long | $1.84 | $1.84 | 5% | Closed | 3/26/2021 | $2.53 | 1 | 17 | $0.69 | 38% |
3/9/2021 | RKT | Long | $25.89 | $24.10 | 5% | Closed | 3/18/2021 | $24.10 | 1 | 9 | ($1.79) | -7% |
3/9/2021 | SOS | Long | $6.30 | $5.80 | 10% | Closed | 3/22/2021 | $7.26 | 0 | 13 | $0.96 | 15% |
3/8/2021 | BBBY | Long | $30.93 | $28.00 | 5% | Closed | 3/10/2021 | $30.05 | 1 | 2 | ($0.88) | -3% |
3/8/2021 | OSTK | Long | $60.48 | $53.65 | 5% | Closed | 3/10/2021 | $68.58 | 0 | 2 | $8.10 | 13% |
3/8/2021 | W | Long | $306.79 | $292.00 | 10% | Closed | 3/23/2021 | $339.04 | 1 | 15 | $32.25 | 11% |
3/3/2021 | MAC | Long | $13.70 | $13.00 | 5% | Closed | 3/4/2021 | $13.22 | 1 | 1 | ($0.48) | -4% |