Hello everyone, I wanted to share some data/analysis I did with this indicator. I have been monitoring the reversal indicator for a little over a month now on about 300-400 stocks. Majority are mostly S&P 500 stock. I have daily e-mails of the alerts and they serve as a confirmation of the backtest so I can tell what time the alert came out and then go back to check if the "buy" bubble disappeared or not.
My methodology was to stay consistent in my approach so I would consider a potential buy only towards the end of the day and potential profit taking would be mostly early morning 9:30 to 10 AM. Step 1 was take the alerts I got through the day and then only buy the stock/option after 3 PM for a swing trade. I also jotted down potential price targets for every stock based off technical analysis. In the majority of cases my price targets were pretty close. Sometimes a stock blew through the target which is fine by me
. At this point I would sell the stock and also used risk management to get out of the trade if the stock drops considerably over a few days.
Now for the numbers...
~1 month period on the daily timeframe; all hits
60 hits
W-L RECORD: 45-15
Avg % Gain: 7.2%
Avg % Loss: 2.95% (Excluded 4 hits because they had a positive gain, however, I had them as do not trade due to a big move up or because their chart didn't look good. If I include those 4 hits the avg %loss is 1.75%).
NOTE I based the numbers off buying 100 shares of the security.
Total $ Gain: $53,878
Avg $ Gain: $1,197.29
Avg hold time: 3.5 days (max of 13 days)
Total $ Loss: $5,052 (Including the 4 excluded from earlier the loss is $4,329.)
Avg $ Loss: $459.27 (Including the 4 excluded from earlier the average loss is $288.60)
Avg hold time: 1.5 days (max of 3 days)
Now I know you're wondering, what about the indicator repainting and all that?? For my purposes, I basically used it as a scan to find stocks that have potential upward movement. So using technical analysis or other charting techniques to confirm your hypothesis can greatly increase your chances in the trade. In a good portion of cases you're looking at a $5 to 10 move over roughly two weeks. This is fine by me as you don't have to sit there and watch stocks all day long.
With all the said, I kept a log of the indicator to see if it repainted or not. Out of 60 hits, the flag disappeared 16 times. Excluding the Netflix outlier, the average % change was 0.29% or in dollars you still would have made $2,242 over 16 trades.
On the flip side you had 44 trades where the flag did not disappear and would have made $39,307. This number does include four losses.
I know it is not possible to trade 100 shares with all these stocks every day as the equity needed is next to impossible unless you got millions
The next thing I am still working on is tracking naked options that are about two weeks out. It isn't as lucrative as buying 100 shares but buying 1 contract and putting in 7K to make almost 10K on 30 some days does sound promising.
As always, this was just my analysis on select stocks and YMMV