Steve's Flow Data Recommendations for October 2019

[MasterSteve]

October 22th

Call Plays:
ORLY Nov 15 430 C at $2.93 at 7:35 PST Earnings on 10/23 AMC (risky earnings play, probably will just watch and not play)
ALNY Nov 15 90 C at $3.45 at 9:33 PST

Put Plays:
HSIC Nov 15 62.5 P at $2.68 at 9:34 PST
CATM Dec 20 35 P at $3.70 at 9:36 PST

12:36 PST Looks like thats it for today. Lots of earnings reporting in the next week, don't want to get too risky. Watching MPWR earnings after hours today. Puts look good but as I'm already looking at a few stocks reporting earnings I don't want to call it out. Earnings plays are always especially risky.

Update Plays:
2 of the earnings plays I called late last night didn't pan out. HAS and TRV out for 92% loss. Just goes to show earnings are especially volatile and you can't catch all winners. Will keep up with it.
RTN hit $4.00 (+62.6%)
VAR hit $4.85 (+21%)
PII call from last week ended up going to $8.50 (+309%) after earnings. I took profit at 13% to keep my money safe going into earnings. With a big account I'd leave a runner on for earnings.
UTHR went to $1.80 (+41.7%) another I took profit early on. Better keep very safe with a small account than risk it.
KSU went to a max of $9.80 (+536%) from last week.
I went back and looked through more plays from last week. I'm not going to list all of the gains, but DXCM, VFC, PPG, PNC all went for more, sometimes even hundreds of percentages more. We're not taking advantage of that in my $1000 test account, but I just want to note how powerful this strategy is for those with bigger accounts as well.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 23th

Call Plays:
FIS DEC 20 130 C at $3.60 at 7:26 PST

Put Plays:
IGV Nov 15 205 P at $4.05 at 7:29 PST

Update Plays:
Looking around there are a lot of earnings plays to be made, but I don't want to get too much of our accounts risk on earnings. Will only go in a couple today.
ALNY hit $4.45 (+32.84%) quick overnighter

 

[MasterSteve]

October 24th

Call Plays:
EXOE Dec 20 145 C at $2.33 at 11:53 PST

Put Plays:
DLR DEC 20 125 P at $1.68 at 7:53 PST
ODFL Dec 20 170 P at $2.98 at 7:55 PST
RMD Nov 15 125 P at $3.45 at 7:57 PST Earnings AMC today, keep a close eye on this one

Update Plays:
ORLY hit $12.07 (+411.95%) after earnings, congrats if you made that one.
FIS hit $4.93 (+36.94%) explanation why I made that play is on another thread

 

[MasterSteve]

October 25th

Call Plays:
IR Nov 15 125 C for $1.18 at 9:19 PST*

Put Plays:

Update Plays:
DLR hit $2.20 (+30.95%)
RMD earnings went the other way. out at .2 (95% loss)
Market has been pretty wild today. Rode amazon up and down in the morning, don't see too much for good flow. Will update tonight if I see anything else.

 

[MasterSteve]

Trade profit mini review for the fourth week of October (Oct 18th - 24th):
There were 19 plays called out this week (Last Friday to this Thursday, as today's calls haven't had a chance to move yet). 14 closed plays. There were 5 accepted losses with an average loss of 73.324%. There were 9 closed winners with an average of 93.91% profit. Meaning, following all of these plays with an equal weight would have yielded a roughly 34% account gain over the week. The win rate for this week was 64.3%. There were more losers than usual because it was a wild week for earnings plays. We were able to keep a higher account gain because the losing plays were positioned small and because the average win return was much higher than in previous weeks. Take a look at the mini recap on Tuesday as well for some updates on last weeks profits.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 28th

Call Plays:
PRAH Nov 15 100 C for $3.35 at 9:55 PST
FIS Nov 15 130 C for $3.65 at 9:57 PST

Put Plays:
EFX Nov 15 135 P for $1.70 at 7:37 PST
TPX Nov 15 80 P for $2.80 at 9:54 PST
UI Dec 20 120 P for $4.25 at 9:58 PST

Update Plays:
IR hit $1.66 (+40.68%) and I'm out

 

[MasterSteve]

October 29th

Call Plays:
ASND Dec 20 135 C for $3.83 at 7:39 PST
VRSK Nov 15 150 C for $4.00 at 7:50 PST very risky earnings play AMC 10/29
XPO Dec 20 82.5 C for $3.80 at 12:25 PST

Put Plays:
DLR Nov 15 135 P for $4.20 at 7:52 PST very risky earnings play AMC 10/29
LGND Dec 20 105 P for $4.90 at 12:30 PST

Update Plays:
Already out, but IR hit $2.85 (+141.55%)
FIS just hit $4.85 (+32.88%) another overnight gain for FIS
EFX hit $2.25 (+32.35%) overnight gain and out

 

[MasterSteve]

October 30th

Call Plays:

Put Plays:
PH Nov 15 190 P for $3.60 at 12:43 PST Risky Earnings BMO 10/31

Update Plays:
DLR just hit $10.70 (+154.76%) called multiple times and wrote a post about it
VRSK at $1.38 (-65.5%) other risky earnings play didn't pan out. Between the two risky earnings yesterday, up a total of 45% even with the loss
LGND at $5.85 (+19.39%) just overnight
UI at $5.05 (+18.82%) from Monday
Haven't found anything interesting in terms of flow today yet. Stay tuned 8:25 PST
Spent all market day looking for good plays. Only found one put. We'll see how it turns out tomorrow. 1:57 PST update

 

[MasterSteve]

October 31th

Call Plays:

Put Plays:

Update Plays:
I spent all day looking for plays yesterday. Only found 1 play. PH went to $7.60 (+111.1%)! Some days we won't be able to find much good flow in the market. But I would rather not get in many plays if it means we don't lose money. Capital preservation is everything.
Tomorrow I'm off the market completely.
I've got some stuff going on this morning, may not be able to watch and note things like usual. Play it safe.

 

[MasterSteve]

November 1st

I’m not watching the market today. I will update the current plays with Thursday and Friday’s prices over the weekend. Stay safe!

Steve

 

[MasterSteve]

Update here.

https://usethinkscript.com/threads/...-profit-strategy-in-testing-update.724/page-5
Will recap this month and post a November thread soon

 

[MasterSteve]

I called out 80 plays over the month of October. The win rate for the month was 62.5%. The total profit gained by following these plays was $6,509, which would put your account at a little over +100% for the month because you'd need about 5 to 6 thousand to be able to play all of them at once. I'm going to keep testing this and see if I can get November to be just as successful as October was. Link to the excel file with all of the plays here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ssIeZvi88girLgOfzcX7uJ99cPPICbDymUl-DmrbBK8/edit?usp=sharing