Steve's Flow Data Recommendations for October 2019

[MasterSteve]

You MUST read this post first before continue further.

This thread will be used to call out positions I'm looking at this month. I'll try and be as accurate and transparent as possible as I find plays.

Note: This is a strategy in testing.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 1st
Below is a list of the positions that I'll be tracking. Price and positions are of the time of this posting (Oct 1 1:02pm PST)

Call plays:
IQV Nov 15 145 calls at $6.45
MIDD Nov 15 120 calls at $3.13
TREX Nov 15 95 calls at $3.35

Put plays:
TRV Nov 15 145 puts at $3.75
EMB Oct 18 112 puts at $0.65 (3)
LOPE Nov 15 80 puts at $1.23 (2)
RMD Nov 15 125 puts at $2.83 (2)

 

[MasterSteve]

October 2nd

Call Plays:
AMTD Nov 15 40 calls at $0.5 (6) 7:45 PST
IR Nov 15 125 calls at $1.25 (2) 8:36 PST
MYL Nov 15 20 calls at $.92 (4) 8:52 PST
FLT Nov 15 290 calls at $9.4 12:38 PST
BLL Nov 15 75 calls at $1.43 (3) 12:41 PST

I noticed NOW has unusual flow that looks bullish, but the play is very hedged against downside. Just one to watch and see what happens.

Put Plays:
CHKP Oct 18 110 puts at $4.15 8:39 PST
JEC Oct 18 90 puts at $3.75 8:42 PST
CLX Nov 15 140 puts at $1.98 (2) 12:46 PST
ESS Nov 15 310 puts at $5.00 12:48 PST

Update Plays (I count wins at over 20% for this strategy):
TRV puts now up 50%
RMD puts now up 60%

 

[MasterSteve]

October 3rd

Call Plays:
ALV Oct 18 80 calls at $.53 9:39 PST
AKAM Nov 15 90 calls at $5.23 9:42 PST

Put Plays:
SPY Oct 18 285 puts at $3.97 7:50 PST
ATHM Oct 18 85 puts at $3.60 9:34 PST
LII Oct 18 220 puts at $2.05 (3) 9:35 PST
AMP Oct 18 130 puts at $1.95 (3) 12:01 PST
DRI Oct 18 115 puts at $2.53 12:04 PST

Play Updates:
CLX puts at $2.8 (+41%)
BLL calls at $1.78 (+24.5%)
Looking to leave IQV calls at +17%, MYL at +16%, FLT at +9%. More economic news comes out tomorrow and I want to keep these safe.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 4th - Lot of FED talks and chop. Usually we'd be watching plays by now but I'm going to hold off until after the FED speaks. 8:21 PST.

Call Plays:
COST Oct 11 290 calls at $3.65 Entered at 11:09 PST
MTN Oct 18 230 calls at $3.55 Entered at 11:17 PST

Put Plays:
VTR Jan 17,2020 60 puts at $0.45 (6) Entered at 9:04 PST

Update Plays:
ALV at .78 (+47.2%)
ATHM at 4.50 (+25%) updated
TREX at 3.85 (+15%) still watching
EMB at .18 (-72%) out

 

[MasterSteve]

Trade profit mini review for the first week of October (Oct 1st - 4th):
There were 26 plays called out. 9 closed plays. There was 1 accepted loss (EMB at -72%) and looking to get out of one more at a loss next week (SPY). There were 8 closed winners with an average of 32.19% profit.
On Friday we saw a limited amount of flow data due to uncertainty around the FED data coming out. I'm looking to see regular flow action back on Monday.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 7th

Call Plays:
NFLX Oct 11th* 275 calls at $3.95 Entered at 7:01 PST *fixed date
CP Nov 15th 220 calls at $3.60 Entered at 8:05 PST
DPZ Oct 18th 250 calls at $5.95 Entered at 11:33 PST

Put Plays:
AAPL Oct 18th 225 puts at $2.51 (2) Entered at 9:09 PST
NUS Oct 18 40 puts at $0.73 (4) Entered at 12:30 PST

Update Plays:
COST at $6.63 (+81.64%)
NFLX hit $4.85 (+22.78% ) just 27 minutes since the call out, now at 33%
SPY at $1.52 (-61.71%)
CP at $3.45 (-5%) I don't like where flow changed for this one. I'm out early because I don't want to risk it, even though there's a month left in the play.
AAPL at $3.05 (+21.51%) at 12:03 PST another quick profit today
Watching LII, AMP, and DRI for possible exits soon at a loss (put plays from last week with Oct exp)

 

[MasterSteve]

October 8th

Call Plays:
Hele Oct 18 160 calls at $3.25 Entered at 8:42 PST
PSA Dec 20 260 calls at $3.50 Entered at 8:46 PST

Puts Plays:
PLCE Nov 15 70 puts at $4.50 Entered at 8:49 PST
SAGE Nov 15 125 puts at $6.2 Entered at 10:32 PST
SPY Nov 1 285 puts at $3.49 Entered at 11:01 PST
DPZ Oct 25 240 puts at $2.00 (2) Entered at 12:06 PST

Update Plays:
AMP hit $3.40 (+74.36%)
NUS hit $1.03 (+41.1%)
CP went down over $3 today, confirming our earlier flow change thoughts
Watching DPZ here 8:37 PST. DPZ now at 7.65 (+28.57%) 8:53 PST
VTR hit $.55 (+22.22%)
SPY hit $4.26 (+22%) still watching
I don't like where MIDD ($1.65 -47.28%) and IR ($0.60 -52%) went/are going. I'm out.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 9th

I'm in meetings all day, won't be able to post much today. I'll catch you guys up after I'm out.

One thing, looks like the market is up today on a possible deal. Both parties have already said that they won't compromise on the parts of the deal that matter to them, so I expect to go back down soon. Good spot for a SPY month out put.

Steve

 

[MasterSteve]

October 10th

Call Plays:
FIZZ Nov 15 45 C at $4.10 Entered at 7:36 PST
FIS Nov 15 135 C at $3.58 Entered at 9:18 PST

Put Plays:
SPY Nov 1 293 P at $4.56 Entered at 9:19 PST **

Update Plays:
Looks like DPZ hit 20% yesterday, still watching our 240 puts we've got plenty of time to run down
SPY up on possible trade resolution, Trump to meet Vice Pres of China tomorrow
** SPY is very hard to read for flow and I don't have the best track record for calling swing positions for it. But, what I'm seeing points for a downturn in the very near future. Will watch closely and update.
SAGE hit $7.75 (+25%)
DRI hit $3.15 (+24.51%)
Out LII at $.78 (-62%), JEC at $1.45 (-61%) because I don't like where the flow went on those 2, as previously noted.
12:03 PST. With market conditions looking to be especially volatile overnight, I have elected to not enter in any other flows for today. Will get better and safer entries tomorrow. The last few days have had a lot of winners, want to keep that up.

 

[MasterSteve]

October 11th

Call Plays:
TER Nov 15 65 C at $1.58 Entered at 8:16 PST
MTCH Nov 15 75 C at $4.65 Entered at 9:55 PST

Put Plays:
CDNS Oct 18 65 P at $0.53 (4) Entered at 7:33 PST

Update Plays:
Trex at $4.25 (+26.87%)
Fizz at $5.60 (+36.59%)
Out HELE at $0.83 (-74%)
12:00 PST: Should get an update on trade war news soon before market close. China is at the White House currently. Just watching for it.
CDNS at $1.10 (+107.55%) Great same day profit! 12:06 PST

 

[MasterSteve]

Trade profit mini review for the second week of October (Oct 7th - 11th):
There were 17 plays called out. 21 closed plays from last week and this week. There were 7 accepted losses with an average loss of 51.86%. There were 14 closed winners with an average of 39.62% profit. Meaning, following all of these plays with an equal weight would have yielded a roughly 9% account gain over the week.

 

[MasterSteve]

This next week will be a little different. I intended to start testing the strategy with a $1,000 account. But, something came up and I will not be available during market hours for the next week. This is unusual and does not happen often. I won't be able to call out plays as they happen during this time. However, I will be looking at the flow each night and will post a set of plays to watch. I'll use the market close price as my entry price, and will keep tracking those positions in order to further test this strategy.

Steve