Steve's Flow Data Recommendations for October 2019

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MasterSteve

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You MUST read this post first before continue further.

This thread will be used to call out positions I'm looking at this month. I'll try and be as accurate and transparent as possible as I find plays.

Note: This is a strategy in testing.
 
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MasterSteve

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October 1st
Below is a list of the positions that I'll be tracking. Price and positions are of the time of this posting (Oct 1 1:02pm PST)

Call plays:
IQV Nov 15 145 calls at $6.45
MIDD Nov 15 120 calls at $3.13
TREX Nov 15 95 calls at $3.35

Put plays:
TRV Nov 15 145 puts at $3.75
EMB Oct 18 112 puts at $0.65 (3)
LOPE Nov 15 80 puts at $1.23 (2)
RMD Nov 15 125 puts at $2.83 (2)
 
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October 2nd

Call Plays:
AMTD Nov 15 40 calls at $0.5 (6) 7:45 PST
IR Nov 15 125 calls at $1.25 (2) 8:36 PST
MYL Nov 15 20 calls at $.92 (4) 8:52 PST
FLT Nov 15 290 calls at $9.4 12:38 PST
BLL Nov 15 75 calls at $1.43 (3) 12:41 PST

I noticed NOW has unusual flow that looks bullish, but the play is very hedged against downside. Just one to watch and see what happens.

Put Plays:
CHKP Oct 18 110 puts at $4.15 8:39 PST
JEC Oct 18 90 puts at $3.75 8:42 PST
CLX Nov 15 140 puts at $1.98 (2) 12:46 PST
ESS Nov 15 310 puts at $5.00 12:48 PST

Update Plays (I count wins at over 20% for this strategy):
TRV puts now up 50%
RMD puts now up 60%
 
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October 3rd

Call Plays:
ALV Oct 18 80 calls at $.53 9:39 PST
AKAM Nov 15 90 calls at $5.23 9:42 PST

Put Plays:
SPY Oct 18 285 puts at $3.97 7:50 PST
ATHM Oct 18 85 puts at $3.60 9:34 PST
LII Oct 18 220 puts at $2.05 (3) 9:35 PST
AMP Oct 18 130 puts at $1.95 (3) 12:01 PST
DRI Oct 18 115 puts at $2.53 12:04 PST

Play Updates:
CLX puts at $2.8 (+41%)
BLL calls at $1.78 (+24.5%)
Looking to leave IQV calls at +17%, MYL at +16%, FLT at +9%. More economic news comes out tomorrow and I want to keep these safe.
 
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October 4th - Lot of FED talks and chop. Usually we'd be watching plays by now but I'm going to hold off until after the FED speaks. 8:21 PST.

Call Plays:
COST Oct 11 290 calls at $3.65 Entered at 11:09 PST
MTN Oct 18 230 calls at $3.55 Entered at 11:17 PST

Put Plays:
VTR Jan 17,2020 60 puts at $0.45 (6) Entered at 9:04 PST

Update Plays:
ALV at .78 (+47.2%)
ATHM at 4.50 (+25%) updated
TREX at 3.85 (+15%) still watching
EMB at .18 (-72%) out
 
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Trade profit mini review for the first week of October (Oct 1st - 4th):
There were 26 plays called out. 9 closed plays. There was 1 accepted loss (EMB at -72%) and looking to get out of one more at a loss next week (SPY). There were 8 closed winners with an average of 32.19% profit.
On Friday we saw a limited amount of flow data due to uncertainty around the FED data coming out. I'm looking to see regular flow action back on Monday.
 
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October 7th

Call Plays:
NFLX Oct 11th* 275 calls at $3.95 Entered at 7:01 PST *fixed date
CP Nov 15th 220 calls at $3.60 Entered at 8:05 PST
DPZ Oct 18th 250 calls at $5.95 Entered at 11:33 PST

Put Plays:
AAPL Oct 18th 225 puts at $2.51 (2) Entered at 9:09 PST
NUS Oct 18 40 puts at $0.73 (4) Entered at 12:30 PST

Update Plays:
COST at $6.63 (+81.64%)
NFLX hit $4.85 (+22.78% ) just 27 minutes since the call out, now at 33%
SPY at $1.52 (-61.71%)
CP at $3.45 (-5%) I don't like where flow changed for this one. I'm out early because I don't want to risk it, even though there's a month left in the play.
AAPL at $3.05 (+21.51%) at 12:03 PST another quick profit today
Watching LII, AMP, and DRI for possible exits soon at a loss (put plays from last week with Oct exp)
 
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October 8th

Call Plays:
Hele Oct 18 160 calls at $3.25 Entered at 8:42 PST
PSA Dec 20 260 calls at $3.50 Entered at 8:46 PST

Puts Plays:
PLCE Nov 15 70 puts at $4.50 Entered at 8:49 PST
SAGE Nov 15 125 puts at $6.2 Entered at 10:32 PST
SPY Nov 1 285 puts at $3.49 Entered at 11:01 PST
DPZ Oct 25 240 puts at $2.00 (2) Entered at 12:06 PST

Update Plays:
AMP hit $3.40 (+74.36%)
NUS hit $1.03 (+41.1%)
CP went down over $3 today, confirming our earlier flow change thoughts
Watching DPZ here 8:37 PST. DPZ now at 7.65 (+28.57%) 8:53 PST
VTR hit $.55 (+22.22%)
SPY hit $4.26 (+22%) still watching
I don't like where MIDD ($1.65 -47.28%) and IR ($0.60 -52%) went/are going. I'm out.
 
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October 9th

I'm in meetings all day, won't be able to post much today. I'll catch you guys up after I'm out.

One thing, looks like the market is up today on a possible deal. Both parties have already said that they won't compromise on the parts of the deal that matter to them, so I expect to go back down soon. Good spot for a SPY month out put.

Steve
 
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October 10th

Call Plays:
FIZZ Nov 15 45 C at $4.10 Entered at 7:36 PST
FIS Nov 15 135 C at $3.58 Entered at 9:18 PST

Put Plays:
SPY Nov 1 293 P at $4.56 Entered at 9:19 PST **

Update Plays:
Looks like DPZ hit 20% yesterday, still watching our 240 puts we've got plenty of time to run down
SPY up on possible trade resolution, Trump to meet Vice Pres of China tomorrow
** SPY is very hard to read for flow and I don't have the best track record for calling swing positions for it. But, what I'm seeing points for a downturn in the very near future. Will watch closely and update.
SAGE hit $7.75 (+25%)
DRI hit $3.15 (+24.51%)
Out LII at $.78 (-62%), JEC at $1.45 (-61%) because I don't like where the flow went on those 2, as previously noted.
12:03 PST. With market conditions looking to be especially volatile overnight, I have elected to not enter in any other flows for today. Will get better and safer entries tomorrow. The last few days have had a lot of winners, want to keep that up.
 
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October 11th

Call Plays:
TER Nov 15 65 C at $1.58 Entered at 8:16 PST
MTCH Nov 15 75 C at $4.65 Entered at 9:55 PST

Put Plays:
CDNS Oct 18 65 P at $0.53 (4) Entered at 7:33 PST

Update Plays:
Trex at $4.25 (+26.87%)
Fizz at $5.60 (+36.59%)
Out HELE at $0.83 (-74%)
12:00 PST: Should get an update on trade war news soon before market close. China is at the White House currently. Just watching for it.
CDNS at $1.10 (+107.55%) Great same day profit! 12:06 PST
 
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Trade profit mini review for the second week of October (Oct 7th - 11th):
There were 17 plays called out. 21 closed plays from last week and this week. There were 7 accepted losses with an average loss of 51.86%. There were 14 closed winners with an average of 39.62% profit. Meaning, following all of these plays with an equal weight would have yielded a roughly 9% account gain over the week.
 
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This next week will be a little different. I intended to start testing the strategy with a $1,000 account. But, something came up and I will not be available during market hours for the next week. This is unusual and does not happen often. I won't be able to call out plays as they happen during this time. However, I will be looking at the flow each night and will post a set of plays to watch. I'll use the market close price as my entry price, and will keep tracking those positions in order to further test this strategy.

Steve
 
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October 14th (Everything entered EOD just to track) I think these plays are still viable.

Call Plays:
ED Nov 15 90 C at $2.60 (2)
ALXN Nov 15 105 C at $4.40
PFPT Nov 15 140 C at $2.80 (2)

Put Plays:
HSIC Oct 18 60 P at $.58 (4)

May not be viable anymore but ASML EOW 270 calls are at $2.60 (2). Earnings tomorrow morning.
 
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October 15th (Everything entered EOD just to track)

Call Plays:
PNC Oct 18 138 C at $3.95 (Earnings play BMO tomorrow)
FNV Nov 15 95 C at $1.73 (2)
BLD Nov 15 100 C at $4.05

Put Plays:
DOV Nov 15 90 P at $1.03 (3) (Earnings play 10/17 BMO)
Watch LDOS, some unusual put flow for Nov 15 but theres some big news coming out for a possible contract.

Update Plays:
ASML hit $5.00 (+92%). Up over 60% even if you entered at the morning bell.
ALXN hit $5.60 (+27%)
 
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October 16th (Everything entered EOD just to track)

Call Plays:
DXCM Nov 15 165 C at $4.60
VFC Nov 1 91.5 C at $2.63
PPG Oct 18 119 C at $1.85 (2) Earnings on 10/17 BMO

Put Plays:
CHKP Nov 15 105 P at $2.28
CBRE Nov 15 50 P at $0.83 (2)

Update Plays:
PNC hit $5.00 (+26.58%)
LDOS Nov 15 flow hit +15-20% should have went with my gut and picked out a contract.
New update post coming in the next couple of days. Going to start testing flow calls with a $1k account.
 
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October 17th (Everything entered EOD just to track)

Call Plays:
MAN Nov 15 90 C at $1.38 Earnings on 10/18 BMO
KSU Nov 15 140 C at $1.83 Earnings on 10/18 BMO

Put Plays:
NFLX Oct 18 287.5 P at $1.01 Entered at 10:24 PST*
ITW Nov 15 155 P at $3.45

Update Plays:
Out NFLX at $1.15 (+13.86%) at 12:53 PST
FNV hit $2.40 (+38.7%)
BLD hit $5.25 (+29.63%)
DOV earnings play didn't pan out, was max 5% up the day before but earnings went the wrong way. Out at $0.30 (loss)
DXCM hit $6.10 (+32.61%)
PPG hit $2.98 (+61.08%)
Bunch of winners this week. Earnings are always more of a gamble, should be entered in lightly. There was a lot of tickers with earnings that came up today, but I don't want to watch too many as they are risky. Still watching.
* means I played with real money
 
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October 18th

Call Plays:
LII 270 C at $2.20 Entered at 9:29 PST *
UTHR 90 C at $1.27 Entered at 12:52 PST*
PII 95 C at $2.75 Entered at 12:55 PST *

Put Plays:
MED Nov 15 80 P at $1.65 EOD

Update Plays:
NFLX hit $12.00 (+1000%) since I called it out yesterday. unfortunately I sold to secure profits :(
MAN hit $2.45 (+77.54%)
KSU hit $5.70 (+311%) wow! in just one day
LII hit $2.60 (+18.33%) at 12:40 PST set a fill and forgot to get out of it. Earnings on Monday
* means I played with real money

Update 11:56 PM 10/18/2019
The call plays all have Nov 15th expiration. Forgot to add that. Also, I didn't see these play updates earlier today but still wanted to note them.
VFC hit $3.25 (+23.57%)
CBRE hit $1.12 (+34.94%)
 
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Trade profit mini review for the third week of October (Oct 11th - 17th):
There were 21 plays called out this week (Last Friday to this Thursday, as today's calls haven't had a chance to move yet). 18 closed plays. There were 2 accepted losses with an average loss of 63.89%. There were 15 closed winners with an average of 57.96% profit. There was one closed winner with a profit of 1088%, but that is quite rare and I did not include that in my averages. I had an amazing week with a 89% win rate!! That is really really good for this strategy. Meaning, following all of these plays with an equal weight would have yielded a roughly 20% account gain over the week. This was a stellar week for call outs, and I'll keep working on this strategy so I can keep these gains up. Next week I'm working with a real account and I'll write a post with some more details on Sunday night.
 
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October 21th (Everything entered EOD just to track)

Call Plays:
HAS Nov 1 125 C at $1.25 Earnings on 10/22 BMO
JEC Jan 17 100 C at $2.00
TRV Nov 15 145 C at $2.58 Earnings on 10/22 BMO
RTN Nov 15 210 C at $2.46 Earnings on 10/24 BMO

Put Plays:
VAR Nov 15 115 P at $4.00 Earnings on 10/23 AMC

Update Plays:
I'm sick, couldn't keep up with log today. I'll enter in the plays I like later today. All 3 plays I've entered in with real money have gone positive and I'm out.
PII Out at $3.10 (+13%) at 6:32 PST ended up going to $3.25 soon after
UTHR out at $1.59 (+25% ) at 6:53 PST
ED out at $3.35 (+28.85%) entered in a week ago, finally made its move. Patience is key.
 
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