Flow Data Strategy - Real Money Testing

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MasterSteve

Active member
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The paper trading testing phase of this strategy has gone very well so far and it is now time for the final stage of testing. After months of backtesting, watching, and alerting, I will now run a real account using the strategy I've developed. I have started an account with $1000. I still plan on tracking and calling out all plays that I see on the market, but I’ll also be playing some of the alerts as well. Continuing with the public record, I’ll put an asterisk by the ones my money is behind on this thread.


The plays that I decide to enter aren’t “better” per say than the others on any basis of security or consistency, but just better fit my account size. As is usually the case, your account size is your biggest limiting factor.

I have a few goals for this final stage of testing. First, keeping a strict risk management with every position in mind. With that, even a bad loss in one position will never tank my account. Second, I have a strong preference on locking in small profits then risking my capital for more profits. There are so many plays available every day that it is simply not worth staying in a losing position. You can never lose if you have money to play another day. Third, I will continue to work on keeping a consistent log and improving the strategy. I work a full time job and may not be able to post every trade as they come in every day. Some days I’ll be busy at work and may only be able to post in the morning. Others, I'll be able to note when I enter and exit all of the plays. I’ll try my best to post the plays I’m watching every day if not during market hours, after market hours. My work in the market is my top priority. I am committed to improving my trading and working on my strategies. In addition, over the weekends I’ll post a recap of the plays I entered that I find noteworthy or interesting.

The most important thing to me is to develop and run a successful trading system for myself and to help other traders make profit. I will work as hard and as long as I have to in order to make that happen.

 
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J

johntermotto

New member
2019 Donor
October 21th (Everything entered EOD just to track)

Call Plays:
HAS Nov 1 125 C at $1.25 Earnings on 10/22 BMO
JEC Jan 17 100 C at $2.00
TRV Nov 15 145 C at $2.58 Earnings on 10/22 BMO
RTN Nov 15 210 C at $2.46 Earnings on 10/24 BMO

Put Plays:
VAR Nov 15 115 P at $4.00 Earnings on 10/23 AMC

Update Plays:
I'm sick, couldn't keep up with log today. I'll enter in the plays I like later today. All 3 plays I've entered in with real money have gone positive and I'm out.
PII Out at $3.10 (+13%) at 6:32 PST ended up going to $3.25 soon after
UTHR out at $1.59 (+25% ) at 6:53 PST
ED out at $3.35 (+28.85%) entered in a week ago, finally made its move. Patience is key.
@MasterSteve Just wanted to say 'thank you' for the posts. I've taken a few of your trades as 1-2 contracts and been amazed with the success rate. I don't have time to take each one, but a quick glance shows I'm batting around 80%. Appreciate what you do for us here!
 
C

codydog

Member
With the number of trades you post (and assuming you trade them) , how are you avoiding having your a/c get labelled a PDT a/c?
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
With the number of trades you post (and assuming you trade them) , how are you avoiding having your a/c get labelled a PDT a/c?
I'm transitioning from a paper into a $1000 cash account. I've only traded the ones with a * next to them with real money. After a successful run of my cash account, I'll move to trading all of them with a bigger account. I use a tastyworks cash account and that allows me to trade up to my accounts value every day.
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
@MasterSteve Just wanted to say 'thank you' for the posts. I've taken a few of your trades as 1-2 contracts and been amazed with the success rate. I don't have time to take each one, but a quick glance shows I'm batting around 80%. Appreciate what you do for us here!
You're welcome! Thats fantastic to hear I am glad you find this useful.
 
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codydog

Member
when you say "...accounts value...", you mean cash in your a/c, right? Meaning max cash = $1,000, ?
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
when you say "...accounts value...", you mean cash in your a/c, right? Meaning max cash = $1,000, ?
Yes I mean cash. I should have said every day you can trade up to the amount of cash in your account every morning.
 
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Camelotnite

Camelotnite

New member
Warehouse
October 21th (Everything entered EOD just to track)

Call Plays:
HAS Nov 1 125 C at $1.25 Earnings on 10/22 BMO
JEC Jan 17 100 C at $2.00
TRV Nov 15 145 C at $2.58 Earnings on 10/22 BMO
RTN Nov 15 210 C at $2.46 Earnings on 10/24 BMO

Put Plays:
VAR Nov 15 115 P at $4.00 Earnings on 10/23 AMC

Update Plays:
I'm sick, couldn't keep up with log today. I'll enter in the plays I like later today. All 3 plays I've entered in with real money have gone positive and I'm out.
PII Out at $3.10 (+13%) at 6:32 PST ended up going to $3.25 soon after
UTHR out at $1.59 (+25% ) at 6:53 PST
ED out at $3.35 (+28.85%) entered in a week ago, finally made its move. Patience is key.
Steve, are these based on dark pool prints?
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
Steve, are these based on dark pool prints?
These are not. I have previously tried to use dark pool prints as a supplement to my trading and have not been impressed. Some alerts work, most didn't for me and it felt much more risky to me. For this, I search for unusual flow, then go back through all notable orders in the last couple of days before I note a play for testing. This in itself throws out a lot of unusual plays. And I don't just look at the big prints. Sometimes I will look at every order/movement for a stock. I have much more information and control using this strategy. Does that clarify?
 
Camelotnite

Camelotnite

New member
Warehouse
These are not. I have previously tried to use dark pool prints as a supplement to my trading and have not been impressed. Some alerts work, most didn't for me and it felt much more risky to me. For this, I search for unusual flow, then go back through all notable orders in the last couple of days before I note a play for testing. This in itself throws out a lot of unusual plays. And I don't just look at the big prints. Sometimes I will look at every order/movement for a stock. I have much more information and control using this strategy. Does that clarify?
Dark pool is very hard to interpret as it does not have direction nor time. Just something big boys moving funds around.
 
J007RMC

J007RMC

Active member
2019 Donor
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VIP
Master Steve you are doing one heck of a good job on the flow data.
 
MBF

MBF

Active member
2019 Donor
Warehouse
@MasterSteve Are you still using the $1000. Account? Or has it gotten so big that youre buying $300. to $500. contracts! 🙌
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
@MasterSteve Are you still using the $1000. Account? Or has it gotten so big that youre buying $300. to $500. contracts! 🙌
Yes, I am still using the $1,000 account. Its at $1,137.84 right now. I got busy last week with some personal stuff, couldn't trade as much as I wanted to. Then I decided to separate my $1,000 account from my other account to make it easier to track and show screenshots. I don't want to count any gains from other trades not related to flow (like AMZN calls last Friday) towards this account. I'll post an update later this week. Still entering in calls with a * for my real money
 
C

cherif

Member
Hi @MasterSteve , have u ever tried to check the flow of the large cap stocks, i think with high volume and volatility, your system could detect some intraday moves.
By large cap i mean for example: tsla, bynd, aapl,shop,and the rest of them
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
Hi @MasterSteve , have u ever tried to check the flow of the large cap stocks, i think with high volume and volatility, your system could detect some intraday moves.
By large cap i mean for example: tsla, bynd, aapl,shop,and the rest of them
Yes i have and that is 100% a viable strategy. There is a ton of potential for that. I’ve done a little bit of backtesting, but it is very difficult to catch a move unless you’re looking at the stock in question as the order comes in. I have ideas, but haven’t nailed down what exactly to scan for to catch a move like that that would work for more than one stock. My swing trading is my first priority, but working on a scalp strategy is my next project in line.
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
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thank you. keep us posted if you have a breakthrough
Will do! Don’t expect it too soon. I like to do a lot of testing before posting about it so I can confirm that what I have is viable.
 
M

MasterSteve

Active member
VIP
Hey folks, some personal stuff and expenses came up over the weekend and I had to take care of it. I'm pulling the money out of my account to cover it. However, just because I'm not in the market doesn't mean I still won't keep working on my strategies. In a day or so I'll be back to making callouts, running a $1000 paper trading account, and soon I'll be posting a daily watchlist. Stay tuned!
 

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