Yungtrader's Market Plays

  • Thread starter YungTraderFromMontana
  • Start date
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
I have much more time now because I'm out of school and quarantined for a month or more here in NJ. I'm going to start this thread to give stock plays daily where I'm looking for quick pops or swings up on certain tickers. I'll also do a general market analysis every day on Spy making a prediction of the next days market movement.
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
I'm making the first post of the thread the INO play that I took last Friday at 7.92.
Here is the chart.
Reasons I took the trade

demand indicator breakout/spike
decylcer differentiating upward movement
ergodic osc new bar < 1/2 of previous bar
lastly and most important to me, a breakout of the avg candle movement study I use (Yellow range study on the right chart) which looks for anomalies in price action.
I put lines at the resistance levels I'm watching
I tried to highlight all the conditions above with circles or arrows


Also as for the market I think it topped on the 261 resistance and we will be seeing a red week. My best guess for tomorrow is 3-5 percent red day. Nothing to definitive to go off of for tomorrow though other then I think oil will weigh down the market heavily now that its lost momentum. I'm mainly just predicting a retrace back to the low 230's area within the next week. I'll make the market analysis more in depth with ta when I have more time in the coming days.
edit : I forgot to put support but I see a strong one at 6 for ino.
 
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YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
Day 1 recap.
INO opened up above 10% but faded through the end of the day into the negatives. Luckily I sold around 8.75(10:50 est) when it broke a previous support and was running on low volume to secure 7 percent gains for myself.
On the market analysis front I was wrong, I predicted a 3-5 percent drop, we got the opposite. One thing I'll say is that my individual ticker callouts should be better because I can chose the set up.

Day 2
charts of the day

Long:
STML
Downward trend break, candle study breakout, nice surge in volume, demand and moneyflow spikes.
Set your stop on the upward trend or around 4.3. Hopefully some of you guys can nab this premarket at a good price.
I got in on this one averaged at 4.9 today.
(Would you guys like me to update this page realtime on a trading day with potential trades then do the chart that night? It could give you all better entries. For example you could have nabbed ino at 8.3 premarket but I bet many of you would rather buy it the previous day then at 6 am.)

Short:
TWST
Shorted at 33.5 when it entered my resistance zone.
Although volume flow and money flow looked positive. I'm seeing evidence of exhaustion in the demand index as well as a downtrend in the decycler. Volume oscillator readings are unlikely to go higher. This will most likely be a multi day trade.

Wtachlist for tmr
CCOI
volume oscillators show high chance of a big upswing, price was stopped at a major resistance but demand index and oscillators show that unlike previous times at this resistance point it still has room to run. Therefore I'm predicting a massive breakout if markets are up tomorrow. If markets are down this play will most likely be squashed because it trace the general market slightly more therefore I will just not enter the trade.

There are a bunch of other tickers I'm watching but I don't have time to give analysis of them all, here is the scan I use. It catches pretty much all of the next day runners but you just have to sort through the gunk.

As for market analysis I'm maintaining my bearishness unless we see SPY break through its downtrend and the 262 resistance level. Here is the chart I'm using.


I'm going to try to give long and short postions to eliminate any market bias. and focus on small cap stocks that don't mirror the market so you don't have to worry about it as much in volatile times.
 
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H

HighBredCloud

Active member
VIP
@YungTraderFromMontana I was waiting for a thread like this...Cool. Can more people partake in listing their watch list?
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
@YungTraderFromMontana I was waiting for a thread like this...Cool. Can more people partake in listing their watch list?
Sure I don't mind at all. I also was wondering how we still don't have a thread where people share their trades.
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
Quick update, STML up 1 percent, my position is down 3. Still holding.
Up 5% on TWST short today, 8.5% in total. Still holding.
Down market day as expected and therefore didn't enter ccoi.
Total gain of series so far, 16%.
 
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YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
I suggest doing a strangle today, I expect a big move tmr or eod today either through the upward trendline or below. Make sure it includes selling options in case of an upward break and iv crush. Still leaning more bearish but on the other side of this I'm starting to feel like the logarithmic growth curve of the outbreak is starting to turn down; regardless more virus pain to come but a lot of it is priced in.
I sold atml today at 3:05. left with a 3.5 percent loss. It is following the market which I didn't want, therefore it wouldn't get the breakout I want.
Now up over 10% on twst!!!
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
Day 3, up 13% to date.

Long BSX
Volume oscillator, moneyflow, and demand all positive. Decycler holding at high level, breakout over 50 ema and candle range.

Long Vips
Nice volume osc swing, moneyflow blast up along with demand. Decycler curling up to spring. Breakout of downtrend and resistance.

Short T
Decylcer Down with more room to fall, demand broke, volume swing down with candle range breakout down. Option flow very negative.

Short CPRT
Terrible options flow, bad volume swing, demand downswing and moneyflow downswing. Candle range break lower.

Short GOL
Looks extremely crappy, everything is bad. Bounce of 50 ema looks like it could send this down >50%.

Market Analysis
I'm remaining leaning bearish. I still think we see a retest of at least low 230's on spy. Tomorrow is the make or break on the downward trendline. An up day would force a break of it, a downday would hold the resistance.



Positions still active
short: TWST
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
update
BSX sold at 30.99 for a 6.1 percent loss.
Sold VIPS for a 4.1 percent gain at 16.02
Sold T at 28.15 for a 3.55 percent gain
Sold CPRT at 65 for a 6.3% gain
Holding TWST up 13%
Golding GOT up 14%

Total Gain Today 27.5%
Total Gain Since Start Around 39 Percent!!!
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
New Postions today with chart analysis later
Short
ADUS
HE

Long
ASIX
PRTA

Still holding
Short
GOL
TWST

LONG
VIPS
 
H

HighBredCloud

Active member
VIP
@YungTraderFromMontana What do you use to pick your stocks? It seems that you are right on the money on all of them. According RSI 5SMA cross over indicator all of your seem to have just started trending in each given direction...Look out for VIPS tho...resistance is at $16 and APT is hitting the ECI SD Pivot...if it can get past it tomorrow should rally to $20.20 no problem...
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
I use this scan and then I usually look for unusual option volume or volume in general. Then I'll check the indicators I use on individual stocks, you can see these indicators by clicking the highlighted tickers in previous posts. The important aspect of the scan is the custom scan portion which I use simple signals from of candle range study. You'll see I don't have any of the filters on any setting and its because I'll fine tune them depending on the day. I'm working on filtering out the duds of the scan but it's difficult to do without sacrificing promising plays. For example today I didn't have much time to look through the scan and I've found much better options now as I'm working on the code way after market close.
In retrospect I also wish I got rid of vipshop like your'e warning because I drew the horizontal resistance to low and now realize it's yet to breakout. I was mainly playing off of the downtrend breakout as of 3/31. I'll be watching APT closely, its a stock that takes more attention then others because of its extreme volatility.
 
H

HighBredCloud

Active member
VIP
@YungTraderFromMontana Am I doing something wrong with your scan? I don't see the custom field just see whats in the white square I outlined.


What do you use as your get out? Do you trade any other timeframes other than the Daily when you swing trade?
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
Weird, use the first one for bullish and the bottom one for bearish.
Code:
input extremeuptrend =no;
input length = 13;

def avg = ExpAverage(close, length);

def BullPower = high - avg;
def BearPower = low - avg;
def ZeroLine = 0;



input BuyorSell = {default Buy, Sell};
input ShowTodayOnly = yes;
input ShowEntryExitBands = yes;
input ShowBubbles = yes;
input BuyEntry = 3;
input SellEntry = 3;
input BuyExit = 20;
input SellExit = 20;

input ATRLength = 50;
input TargetATRMult = 1;
input DisplayLines = yes;
input PriceDigit = 2;

def today = !ShowTodayOnly or GetDay() == GetLastDay() and SecondsFromTime(0930) >= 0;

# High

def H1  = Highest(high, SellExit);
def H2  = fold i3 = 1 to SellExit
          with ip = 0.0
          do if GetValue(high, i3) == H1 or GetValue(high, i3) < ip
             then ip
             else GetValue(high, i3);
def H3  = fold i1 = 1 to SellExit
          with ip1 = 0.0
          do if GetValue(high, i1) == H1 or GetValue(high, i1) == H2 or GetValue(high, i1) < ip1
             then ip1
             else GetValue(high, i1);
def HH  = (H2 + H3) / 2.0;

# Low

def L1  = Lowest(low, BuyExit);
def L2  = fold i4 = 1 to BuyExit
          with ip2 = 10000000.0
          do if GetValue(low, i4) == L1 or GetValue(low, i4) > ip2
             then ip2
             else GetValue(low, i4);
def L3  = Lowest(if low == L1 or low == L2 then 1000000 else low, BuyExit);
def LL  = (L2 + L2) / 2.0;

def QB = Highest(high, BuyEntry);
def QS = Lowest(low, SellEntry);
def b = QS[1];
def x = QB[1];
def y = LL[1];
def midline = (qs[1] + qb[1])/2;

input longLength = 20;
input shortLength = 10;
input signalLength = 6;
input averageType = AverageType.Exponential;

def ErgodicOsc = TrueStrengthIndex(longLength, shortLength, signalLength, averageType).TSI - TrueStrengthIndex(longLength, shortLength, signalLength, averageType).Signal;
def avgline = (ergodicosc + ergodicOsc[1])/2;
def m = (ergodicOsc > ergodicOsc[1] * .8) and (ergodicOsc < 0);
def z = (ergodicOsc * .8 > ergodicOsc[1]) and (ergodicOsc > 0);
def n = m[1] is false and n[1] is false;
def component1 = (m or n) and b;

def component3 = (close[1] < midline[1]) and (close > midline);
def component2 = (close[1] < qb[2]) and (close > qb[1]);


plot bother =  component2 or component3;
Code:
input extremeuptrend =no;
input length = 13;

def avg = ExpAverage(close, length);

def BullPower = high - avg;
def BearPower = low - avg;
def ZeroLine = 0;



input BuyorSell = {default Buy, Sell};
input ShowTodayOnly = yes;
input ShowEntryExitBands = yes;
input ShowBubbles = yes;
input BuyEntry = 3;
input SellEntry = 3;
input BuyExit = 20;
input SellExit = 20;

input ATRLength = 50;
input TargetATRMult = 1;
input DisplayLines = yes;
input PriceDigit = 2;

def today = !ShowTodayOnly or GetDay() == GetLastDay() and SecondsFromTime(0930) >= 0;

# High

def H1  = Highest(high, SellExit);
def H2  = fold i3 = 1 to SellExit
          with ip = 0.0
          do if GetValue(high, i3) == H1 or GetValue(high, i3) < ip
             then ip
             else GetValue(high, i3);
def H3  = fold i1 = 1 to SellExit
          with ip1 = 0.0
          do if GetValue(high, i1) == H1 or GetValue(high, i1) == H2 or GetValue(high, i1) < ip1
             then ip1
             else GetValue(high, i1);
def HH  = (H2 + H3) / 2.0;

# Low

def L1  = Lowest(low, BuyExit);
def L2  = fold i4 = 1 to BuyExit
          with ip2 = 10000000.0
          do if GetValue(low, i4) == L1 or GetValue(low, i4) > ip2
             then ip2
             else GetValue(low, i4);
def L3  = Lowest(if low == L1 or low == L2 then 1000000 else low, BuyExit);
def LL  = (L2 + L2) / 2.0;

def QB = Highest(high, BuyEntry);
def QS = Lowest(low, SellEntry);
def b = QS[1];
def x = QB[1];
def y = LL[1];
def midline = (qs[1] + qb[1])/2;

input longLength = 20;
input shortLength = 10;
input signalLength = 6;
input averageType = AverageType.Exponential;

def ErgodicOsc = TrueStrengthIndex(longLength, shortLength, signalLength, averageType).TSI - TrueStrengthIndex(longLength, shortLength, signalLength, averageType).Signal;
def avgline = (ergodicosc + ergodicOsc[1])/2;
def m = (ergodicOsc > ergodicOsc[1] * .8) and (ergodicOsc < 0);
def z = (ergodicOsc * .8 > ergodicOsc[1]) and (ergodicOsc > 0);
def n = m[1] is false and n[1] is false;
def component1 = (m or n) and b;

def component3 = (close[1] > midline[1]) and (close < midline);
def component2 = (close[1] > qb[2]) and (close < qb[1]);


plot bother = component2 or component3;
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
I'm looking at energy small caps right now, Oil futures are up and I think oil is bottoming out. It broke the midline of the candle range study I use and it hasn't done this since 2/12. It may boost up equities for a day.
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
Dumped APT at 16.9. for a 3.4% loss
 
YungTraderFromMontana

YungTraderFromMontana

Well-known member
Covered on all my trades at a 11% loss. Need a fresh start today. I made some mistakes yesterday.

Series gain 28%
 
R

Ramesh16

Member
VIP
I'm making the first post of the thread the INO play that I took last Friday at 7.92.
Here is the chart.
Reasons I took the trade

demand indicator breakout/spike
decylcer differentiating upward movement
ergodic osc new bar < 1/2 of previous bar
lastly and most important to me, a breakout of the avg candle movement study I use (Yellow range study on the right chart) which looks for anomalies in price action.
I put lines at the resistance levels I'm watching
I tried to highlight all the conditions above with circles or arrows


Also as for the market I think it topped on the 261 resistance and we will be seeing a red week. My best guess for tomorrow is 3-5 percent red day. Nothing to definitive to go off of for tomorrow though other then I think oil will weigh down the market heavily now that its lost momentum. I'm mainly just predicting a retrace back to the low 230's area within the next week. I'll make the market analysis more in depth with ta when I have more time in the coming days.
edit : I forgot to put support but I see a strong one at 6 for ino.
can you share the chart ? Please
 
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