My Market Update

[antwerks]

Current Weekly Framework (From the Chart)

Locked Price

6851.66

Weekly Straddle (True Market)

$40.10

IV Formula Weekly Move (from header)

~$190

Distortion (Str / IV)

0.21

That is extreme suppression.

This means:

• The actual ATM weekly straddle costs $40
• The IV model says it “should” imply ~$190
• Options are pricing almost no movement

That is not normal compression.
That is dealer control / pinned environment.

Implied Weekly Bands (Using $40 Move)

From 6851.66:

1σ Weekly Range

• Upper: ~6892
• Lower: ~6812

2σ Weekly Range

• Upper: ~6932
• Lower: ~6772

Where Price Is Now

Current SPX ≈ 6852

That is:

• Sitting almost exactly on locked mid
• Inside 1σ
• No expansion
• No directional follow-through

Efficiency is low.
Distortion is low.

That equals:

Structured compression regime

What This Means Structurally

Your lower panel confirms:

• VR: SELL VOL (Suppressed)
• Regime: EARLY BREAKOUT
• ATM Drift: Normal

This combination is interesting:

Distortion = 0.21 (extreme suppressed)

Efficiency = not expanding yet

Price inside 1σ

This is:

Low realized movement
Cheap straddle
Dealers holding the range

Weekly Trade Map Using Your Bands

Above 6892 (1σ break)

That would be first sign compression is breaking.

Watch:

• Does distortion rise toward 0.8–1.0?
• Does efficiency > 1?

If yes → breakout regime.

Below 6812 (1σ lower break)

Same logic downside.

Currently there is no pressure showing.

Between 6812–6892

This is:

Premium harvest zone
Range decay
Theta week

Selling iron condors / short strangles statistically makes sense here.

The Important Insight

Your distortion at 0.21 is not just suppressed.

It is telling you:

Market is NOT paying for movement.

That means:

• Buying premium requires a catalyst.
• Selling premium works — until a distortion expansion.

Big Picture Context (Your Other Panels)

From your images:

• VIX curve in contango
• Front end calm
• Macro risk-on
• Sharpe neutral/choppy

This supports compression thesis.

What Would Flip This Weekly Outlook?

1. Distortion > 0.8
2. Efficiency > 1
3. Price outside 1σ
4. VIX curve steepens or flips

That would move us into:

Expansion / Trend regime

My Clean Weekly Read

Right now SPX is:

Structurally pinned
Premium suppressed
Low follow-through
Range controlled

Until 6812 or 6892 breaks with distortion rising, this is:

Sell premium week.

https://imgur.com/1OQG8mb