So I have a strategy that's an overnight play where I make an "inverted" iron condor on SPX.
So at 10 minutes until closing, I enter into a put debit spread and call debit spread that's 15 points away from current price at as close to 4.0 fill as I can.
For example:
SPX is at 4000 at 10 minutes until close.
I get a next day cds at 4015/4010 and I get a pds at 3985/3900 for as close to 4.0 as I can.
This is what the risk profile looks like at 3.65:
So basically I'm betting that we move 15 points on spx.
My research of 2022 has shown that we have a 84% chance of moving at least 15 points by closing time the next day.
What I really like about this play is those gaps that we've been having overnight help this play. If we have a big move in one direction, I can take my profits and be happy before it reverses and comes back down to where we started (better than OR strat below). I started off 2022 getting burned by the big reversal and being way over-extended into pcs plays.
BUT I always set up the close order as soon as the buy order fills for less profit. There's been too many times in my OR play that I use to do where we make a big move and fall back into the OR. So I'm shooting for more wins and less profit at a 10-15% profit/risk per trade. So on a typical 4.0 fill I'd probably shoot for a 4.60 close to hit that target of around $50 after fees. There have been times where it fills by 10 am the next morning if we have a decent move, others where it's close to closing. $50 profit/$400 risk is 12.5% profit/risk ratio.
My exit is losing around $100 after 1pm when the theta starts to ramp up the losses. I look at my ATR Bands and if the majority of my ATR bands are in the losing range (between 3985 and 4015 in the example) then I'll exit for a $100-$125 loss.
Some history behind this:
I use to do an Opening Range (OR) play where I get this inverted Iron condor after the opening 30 minutes where the strikes of the IC correspond to the opening 30 min high/low (always rounded inwards) . But there were days due to work being so busy that I just don't get into the play b/c I missed the breakout of the opening range. I had a strict do not take above 4.25 b/c then my break-even vs probability math didn't add up. Then there was the day trades on my margin account. In order to take profit before it dove back down into the OR, I'd have to use a day trade. So I was like why don't I just switch the play up to $15 each direction at 10 til and then I can take profit whenever b/c the play was opened the day before. I started the OR strat back in May/June and switched to this method last month. Between the two methods I've made $3000 in profits (I know chump change to a lot of y'all) with maybe 15 minutes of "trading" each day. I started off with 1K so I've gone over 300% using these two methods this year. My goal is to max out my contributions to my IRA next year with these methods. If I were to be able to code this strategy into doing it automatically and throw in a few grand into an account and just let it go, my analysis shows a 86% win rate for 10k earnings at a 4.0 fill on the Opening Range play for 2022 thusfar. Now this won't work if we start going sideways... so I feel like I need to somehow get that into my strategy.
I've only been trading for 1.75 years now so I'm constantly doing research and trying to come up with new methods to my madness. I'm hoping that these strats keep working for me b/c they're easy to do without distracting me from work.