Join us for discussing the below thread on the Daily Market Climate:
https://usethinkscript.com/threads/discuss-the-daily-trading-climate.21460/
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What to watch: August 22, 2025 Afternoon Update
The Fed Watch Tool:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Leading into this week, there was a high >90% conviction that interest rates will be cut by 1/4 of a point in September
This morning, before Powell's speech, it had dropped to ~70%
Right now, climbing back up.
The Market's Conclusion From Jackson Hole: the FED is still on track to lower interest rates in September by 1/4 of a percentage point.
This caused the market to take a pop upwards
This afternoon’s outlook:
Don’t chase price when candles are bigger than usual—those moves often pull back right after.
Powell’s speech was received well, so the market likely won’t drop back to the old consolidation zone. But for now, price action looks flat.
Check your volume: low volume = low movement.
Better to wait for:
https://usethinkscript.com/threads/discuss-the-daily-trading-climate.21460/
================================================
What to watch: August 22, 2025 Afternoon Update
The Fed Watch Tool:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Leading into this week, there was a high >90% conviction that interest rates will be cut by 1/4 of a point in September
This morning, before Powell's speech, it had dropped to ~70%
Right now, climbing back up.
The Market's Conclusion From Jackson Hole: the FED is still on track to lower interest rates in September by 1/4 of a percentage point.
This caused the market to take a pop upwards
This afternoon’s outlook:
Don’t chase price when candles are bigger than usual—those moves often pull back right after.
Powell’s speech was received well, so the market likely won’t drop back to the old consolidation zone. But for now, price action looks flat.
Check your volume: low volume = low movement.
Better to wait for:
- A new support line to form
- 5-bar average volume to move back more into line with the longer-term averages
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