These Are The Trades We Are Doing / Watching In ThinkOrSwim

[useThinkScript]

Where are you seeing potential? Why?

 

[antwerks]

NEXT WEEK - BIG TECH EARNINGS

Going into this tech heavy earnings cluster, the game plan is to treat the entire market as one coordinated setup driven by /ES compression, not a collection of independent trades. Right now, /ES is holding a bullish structure but clearly stalling under the 7185–7200 resistance zone, with suppressed volatility and dealer-controlled flow. That tells you the market is waiting for information (META, GOOGL, TSLA) rather than pricing it in early. So early in the week, your edge is not prediction, it’s range execution and patience. You should expect continued two-sided action between roughly 7000–7200 on /ES (mirroring ~7000–7200 on SPX), which means fading extremes is higher probability: selling strength into the upper range and buying dips into value, while avoiding breakout chasing because momentum and participation are clearly weak across timeframes.
As earnings begin (TSLA first, then META/GOOGL), shift from range mindset to reaction mindset. TSLA will likely set the tone for volatility, not direction, so watch whether /ES reacts impulsively or absorbs the move. If TSLA sells off and /ES holds above ~7070, that’s a sign of underlying market strength (dip buying); if TSLA sells off and /ES loses that level, that’s your first signal of broader risk-off. Then META and GOOGL become the real directional catalysts: if both report strong numbers and, more importantly, guide well, you should expect /ES to break and hold above 7200, triggering a broad risk-on move where trend names (AMD) continue, large caps (META/GOOGL) expand, and high-beta names (TSLA, CVNA) squeeze. In that environment, you stop fading and instead buy pullbacks and momentum confirmation.
On the flip side, if META/GOOGL disappoint or the market interprets their results negatively (especially around AI spend and margins), the most important tell will be acceptance below ~7070 on /ES. That would likely trigger a fast rotation lower toward 7000 to 6950, and your playbook shifts to selling rallies instead of buying dips. In that scenario, expect weakness to cascade across your list: META and GOOGL pull back from highs, TSLA loses its squeeze structure, and names like CVNA unwind aggressively. The key is not trying to predict which outcome happens, but recognizing that the market is currently coiled, and once it breaks out of this range, the move should be clean and directional.
So the plan is simple but disciplined: early week = range trade and protect capital, midweek into earnings = reduce exposure and wait, post-earnings = attack the breakout or breakdown with size. Let /ES dictate everything, if it breaks and holds above resistance, you lean long across strong names; if it loses support, you lean short or defensive. Until then, assume every move is a trap, because right now, structurally, it probably is.

 

[Ricky_005]

Quick look at BABA:

Price has already broken out of a cup-with-handle. A retest of the breakout/handle zone is likely (early Monday or after the open). If that holds, continuation toward the projected targets is in play.

Above that sits a key confluence zones at the potential inverted H&S neckline and both targets above.

Pattern resistance (neckline)
Fibonacci levels line up with projected levels
Volume profile HVN also line up with projected levels

From here:

Break above neckline opens larger IH&S reversal

Both paths are mapped now it’s up to price…
assuming no surprise Trump tweets nuke the setup

 

[atcsam]

View attachment 27412View attachment 27413Quick look at BABA:

Price has already broken out of a cup-with-handle. A retest of the breakout/handle zone is likely (early Monday or after the open). If that holds, continuation toward the projected targets is in play.

Above that sits a key confluence zones at the potential inverted H&S neckline and both targets above.

Pattern resistance (neckline)
Fibonacci levels line up with projected levels
Volume profile HVN also line up with projected levels

From here:

Break above neckline opens larger IH&S reversal

Both paths are mapped now it’s up to price…
assuming no surprise Trump tweets nuke the setup

Really like your price/ date projections.. Are you manually annotating the chart ?

My current 4hr. Chart. Monday could definitely be a defining moment...

 

[Ricky_005]

Thank you atcsam

I wish there was a way to just plug a few numbers into a study and have it generate full technical analysis with directional projections and estimated dates. That would save me a lot of time. I usually won’t spend this much time charting unless I think it has the potential to be a high-value trade. Anyhow, if you ever figure out how to do that with the ancient temple ThinkScript , please let me know.

As for the analysis, this is just the most likely path I see if the pattern follows through. The existing price structure gives enough information to build directional projections, so my thought is: if there is enough structure to project direction and price targets, why not also add estimated dates to help with option selection?

I do think there is enough room in the channel for at least 75% of the projected move, giving MM plenty of room to do his thing on the way up. That said, I would actually like to see a healthy retest of the breakout area, somewhere around $130 or so, before the larger move continues. That would help confirm the breakout and give participants more confidence that the move is real.

There is still the neckline above to deal with, along with other resistance zones, so we’ll see what price does on Monday. As I’m sure you know, patterns can fail and will fail. Current market sentiment is still a little nervous, so anything can happen.

By the way, i wish more people would share their findings on good setups. Doesn't need to be a technical charting analysis, just a ticker and what's going on would be great.

 

[antwerks]

Thank you atcsam

I wish there was a way to just plug a few numbers into a study and have it generate full technical analysis with directional projections and estimated dates. That would save me a lot of time. I usually won’t spend this much time charting unless I think it has the potential to be a high-value trade. Anyhow, if you ever figure out how to do that with the ancient temple ThinkScript , please let me know.

As for the analysis, this is just the most likely path I see if the pattern follows through. The existing price structure gives enough information to build directional projections, so my thought is: if there is enough structure to project direction and price targets, why not also add estimated dates to help with option selection?

I do think there is enough room in the channel for at least 75% of the projected move, giving MM plenty of room to do his thing on the way up. That said, I would actually like to see a healthy retest of the breakout area, somewhere around $130 or so, before the larger move continues. That would help confirm the breakout and give participants more confidence that the move is real.

There is still the neckline above to deal with, along with other resistance zones, so we’ll see what price does on Monday. As I’m sure you know, patterns can fail and will fail. Current market sentiment is still a little nervous, so anything can happen.

By the way, i wish more people would share their findings on good setups. Doesn't need to be a technical charting analysis, just a ticker and what's going on would be great.

The core idea is to focus only on strong, institutionally driven uptrends (Stage 2) and avoid random scanning or early breakout chasing. Each day begins by filtering for stocks already trading above key moving averages, specifically the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, because this confirms that price is in a sustained uptrend rather than a weak or transitioning phase. From there, the focus shifts to strength, selecting stocks that are outperforming the broader market (SPY/QQQ) and showing strong recent performance (weekly/monthly gains), which indicates institutional participation.

Once strong candidates are identified, the next step is to look for tight consolidation patterns after a move, not extended breakouts. The ideal setup is a stock that has already trended higher, then begins forming a narrow range with shrinking candles and decreasing volatility, this signals supply absorption. Volume should contract during this consolidation phase, showing that sellers are drying up, followed by a noticeable increase in volume as price begins to push higher again. This transition from contraction to expansion is the key signal.

Entries are not taken randomly at highs, instead, the trade is executed either on a clean breakout of the tight range (with volume confirmation) or on a controlled pullback to the 20 EMA, provided price respects that level and does not break structure. The stop loss is placed just below the consolidation range or below the 20 EMA, depending on entry type. If the structure fails or the EMA is lost with momentum, the trade is invalid and exited immediately.

The goal is to align trend + structure + volume, entering only when all three confirm. This avoids low-probability setups and keeps focus on high-quality, momentum-driven stocks that institutions are actively accumulating.

here is a scanner for that:

# =========================
# STAGE 2 TREND + COMPRESSION SCAN
# =========================

# --- MOVING AVERAGES ---
def ema20 = ExpAverage(close, 20);
def ema50 = ExpAverage(close, 50);

# --- TREND (Stage 2) ---
def trendUp =
    close > ema20 and
    close > ema50 and
    ema20 > ema50;

# --- STRENGTH (Relative Performance) ---
def strength =
    close / close[20] > 1.05;

# --- VOLUME (Institutional Interest) ---
def volFilter =
    volume > Average(volume, 50);

# --- COMPRESSION (Tight Range) ---
def range =
    Highest(high, 10) - Lowest(low, 10);

def compression =
    range / close < 0.05;

# =========================
# FINAL SCAN CONDITION
# =========================
plot scan =
    trendUp and
    strength and
    volFilter and
    compression;

and here is a more powerful piece - a Watchlist Column:

# =========================
# WATCHLIST: TREND + SETUP STATE
# =========================

# --- MOVING AVERAGES ---
def ema20 = ExpAverage(close, 20);
def ema50 = ExpAverage(close, 50);

# --- TREND ---
def trendUp =
    close > ema20 and
    close > ema50 and
    ema20 > ema50;

def trendDown =
    close < ema20 and
    close < ema50 and
    ema20 < ema50;

# --- COMPRESSION ---
def range =
    Highest(high, 10) - Lowest(low, 10);

def compression =
    range / close < 0.05;

# --- BREAKOUT ---
def breakout =
    close >= Highest(high, 10);

# --- EARLY BUILD (tight + trend) ---
def building =
    trendUp and compression;

# --- READY (tight + slight expansion starting) ---
def ready =
    building and close > close[1];

# =========================
# LABEL OUTPUT
# =========================

AddLabel(yes,
    if breakout then "🔥 BREAKOUT"
    else if ready then "⚡ READY"
    else if building then "🟡 BUILDING"
    else if trendUp then "🟢 TREND"
    else if trendDown then "🔴 DOWN"
    else "—",
    
    if breakout then Color.CYAN
    else if ready then Color.YELLOW
    else if building then Color.ORANGE
    else if trendUp then Color.GREEN
    else if trendDown then Color.RED
    else Color.GRAY
);

 

[merryDay]

If your trades are centered on stocks with high institutional liquidity, read on.

If you trade low float, meme, IPO, high volality type stocks with no institutional backing; you are already experienced trading stock like $BABA and don't need to read the following.

The Anatomy Of A Meme-ified Blue Chip
August 28, 2024: The Great Decoupling. To avoid US delisting risks, institutions began swapping their US ADRs for Hong Kong ordinary shares. This caused $BABA's US institutional ownership to crater to 13.47%

So who does that 10 million volume belong to? The 85% is made up of retail traders.
You are looking at the retail trading swarm in all its glory. A million little traders driving a big stock.

So what is the problem?
Institutional Bots are the math behind our technical indicators. We know they will trigger Long when the price crosses above the 200-day SMA or when the RSI climbs out of oversold territory at a key structural level. Swing and day trading were born from this—the ability to front-run the institutional algorithms.
But stocks without an institutional floor do not respect these indicators.

The Psychology of the BABA Swarm: Bag-Holders vs. High-Hopers
A perusal of the trading rooms (Subreddits, Stocktwits, and Discord groups) reveals a market divided.

» The Defiant Bag-Holders:​

They preach HODL at every dip. In actuality, they are looking for an exit. We saw this on Thursday—as soon as the price broke up $140, the HODLers became sellers, desperate to just break even. This created a massive supply overhead that suppressed the rally.​

» The High-Hopers:​

This group believes the confluence of the May 14th Trump-Xi Summit and the May 21st Earnings is prophetic. A guaranteed catalyst to drive the price to $190.​

The Prediction Probability Collapse
A week ago, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi were pricing an 89% probability that the Beijing summit would occur on schedule. As of tonight, that number has cratered to 70.5%.
The catalyst for this 18-point drop was a hawkish pivot from the US State Department:

Tonight's headline:​

22:30 News Bot: The US State Department has reportedly ordered a global warning over alleged AI IP theft involving DeepSeek and other Chinese firms.​

There are those that trade BABA and make serious money. There are tens of thousands of retail traders that believe this stock will make them rich and nothing in this write-up says that they are wrong.

This write-up was soley for the purpose, of pointing out to newer traders; that it is a different kind of stock.

 

[atcsam]

If your trades are centered on stocks with high institutional liquidity, read on.

If you trade low float, meme, IPO, high volality type stocks with no institutional backing; you are already experienced trading stock like $BABA and don't need to read the following.

The Anatomy Of A Meme-ified Blue Chip
August 28, 2024: The Great Decoupling. To avoid US delisting risks, institutions began swapping their US ADRs for Hong Kong ordinary shares. This caused $BABA's US institutional ownership to crater to 13.47%

So who does that 10 million volume belong to? The 85% is made up of retail traders.
You are looking at the retail trading swarm in all its glory. A million little traders driving a big stock.

So what is the problem?
Institutional Bots are the math behind our technical indicators. We know they will trigger Long when the price crosses above the 200-day SMA or when the RSI climbs out of oversold territory at a key structural level. Swing and day trading were born from this—the ability to front-run the institutional algorithms.
But stocks without an institutional floor do not respect these indicators.

The Psychology of the BABA Swarm: Bag-Holders vs. High-Hopers
A perusal of the trading rooms (Subreddits, Stocktwits, and Discord groups) reveals a market divided.

» The Defiant Bag-Holders:​

They preach HODL at every dip. In actuality, they are looking for an exit. We saw this on Thursday—as soon as the price broke up $140, the HODLers became sellers, desperate to just break even. This created a massive supply overhead that suppressed the rally.​

» The High-Hopers:​

This group believes the confluence of the May 14th Trump-Xi Summit and the May 21st Earnings is prophetic. A guaranteed catalyst to drive the price to $190.​

The Prediction Probability Collapse
A week ago, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi were pricing an 89% probability that the Beijing summit would occur on schedule. As of tonight, that number has cratered to 70.5%.
The catalyst for this 18-point drop was a hawkish pivot from the US State Department:

Tonight's headline:​

22:30 News Bot: The US State Department has reportedly ordered a global warning over alleged AI IP theft involving DeepSeek and other Chinese firms.​

There are those that trade BABA and make serious money. There are tens of thousands of retail traders that believe this stock will make them rich and nothing in this write-up says that they are wrong.

This write-up was soley for the purpose, of pointing out to newer traders; that it is a different kind of stock.

Perfect example of why Homework matters. I generally stay away from Chinese stocks — I knew they took a hit, but I never dug into the structural reasons behind it. Your note makes the whole decoupling move make a lot more sense. TA has its place, just not the full picture.