Mark Helweg's Monday Method

[hockeycoachdoug]

I recently watched a webinar from Mark Helweg at 3xOptions called the Monday Method.
It's basic premise is that Monday is a pivotal day due to markets being closed over the weekend, placing added significance on the open Monday.

It is an option strategy that trades the expiration week entering straight puts or calls during the week and exiting on the close Friday of expiration.

The strategy also is automatic and does not rely on market direction. It is basically a bracket trade. The system is not fully disclosed and is offered as an advisory service.

Although the rules were not disclosed, it appears that an ATR is added and subtracted from the open Monday (i.e. Mon open price +/- ATR). I assume they use a 5 day period for the ATR calculation but I don't know for sure.
You buy a call or put using an "activation order" when the underlying stock price crosses through the open +/- ATR price and exit on the close Friday.
It is possible to trigger both ways meaning buy a put, exit the put and buy a call all in the expiration week.

The premise is that institutions entering or exiting positions must do so over a number of days due to their position size and the Monday open typically indicates likely direction when price goes through the ATR and the move is usually significant. They have a track record showing extremely good results. This is what i am looking for-

I need help coding a TOS indicator that does the following.

Draw a line on the chart showing the Monday open price +/- an ATR amount (would be best that the period amount can be a variable amount).
Probably best if the line colors can be changed also.
The line needs to stay on the chart for an entire week.
It would also be good if additional "target amounts" could be drawn on the chart also in the form of additional ATR unit amounts (i.e. 2x ATR, 3x ATR).

This should be a relatively simple indicator to code. It is important that it calculates based on the Monday open price +/- ATR. Any help with this would be greatly appreciated and I would suggest you try to catch the webinar- It looks like a very promising strategy. Here is a link to the current signup page for the webinar.

https://threexoptions.lpages.co/3x-190501-wall-street-secret-research-3xoptions/

 

[john3]

@hockeycoachdoug I suggested using ORB. If you would like to use ATR, that is fine, but I wouldn't use it this way. If I find a code that you want, I'll post it here.

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

thank you John3

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

I know many of you didn't put much faith in this method. They are back promoting the method again with a reoccuring webinar. I had emailed them and requested a spreadsheet showing how they did over the last 6 months since they last promoted this method. It seems to do pretty well since the winners are often large, while losses are never more then the actual option purchase price. Here is a link to the spreadsheet they sent showing all the trades
Spread sheet of trades last 6 months

Here is a video they sent out today promoting the method Video showing basic idea

If any of you get a chance to catch one of the replays and think you have some coding ideas how to implement this would be great.

Here is a copy of the email they sent out to kick off they're reopening of their offer-

Earlier this year I invited you to learn about a new options trading strategy.

It was unlike any options trading strategy I had ever seen.

What got my initial attention was the pattern that it was targeting.

This pattern, hiding in plain sight all this time, is one of the best patterns I have ever seen, ever!

And the crazy part is that this pattern, once you know what to look for, happens all the time.

Check out the recent real Call Option trade example below in CHK.

Here’s a trade (in the chart above) that this special pattern caught last week in Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK).

This trade bought the Sep 27 puts and made 200% in four days.

And there’s tons more like this trade that happen all the time.

It’s almost like fishing in a fish hatchery.

A target rich environment.

In fact, this pattern literally happens more than any other chart pattern I’ve seen.

And it’s a great pattern for options traders.

But here’s the part that blew me away.

When I first presented this strategy several months ago, I made an outrageous guarantee for this strategy.

I stated that this strategy would find over 200 winning trades within the first 12 months that each made over 100% profits!

Most traders would be happy to find 5 to 10 winning trades that make over 100% profits each year.

Well, It’s been less than 6 months, and this strategy has already identified over 140 documented winning trades each making over 100%.

Those trades include:
CSCO 190524 Calls +190%
HES 190531 Puts +409%
DLTR 190705 Puts +178%

And just this month... MCD 190920 Puts +298%!

Now, like any real trading strategy in the real world…

There will be losing trades.

But here’s the thing.

The losing trades are always limited.

When you buy an Option like in the chart above, you cannot lose more than the price of the option (called the premium).

No matter how wrong you are, you can never ever lose more than the price of the option.

Your risk is always limited!

You can learn all about this new breakthrough options trading strategy at a special webinar this Tuesday, October 1st at 8 pm eastern time.

I've spent years studying charts, but my real breakthrough came when I discovered this options trading strategy.


Tuesday evening, I'm going to reveal how I and my research team stumbled upon this special pattern... how we finds his trades... and much, much more.

Don’t miss this exclusive LIVE broadcast.

I’ll see you Tuesday afternoon.

Here’s the link to register. Space is limited to 1,000 attendees so be sure to arrive on time.

 

[skynetgen]

I watched webinar. Very interesting . I am working on the intraweek system and this is actually confirmed some of my ideas. trying to reverse his approach and build on it. Funny I actually traded some of the stuff (namely HQY) - I traded it based on RelativeVolume spike breakout out of base

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

skynetgen- I look forward to your contributions to this topic. I think there is merit in the logic of this method.

 

[skynetgen]

skynetgen- I look forward to your contributions to this topic. I think there is merit in the logic of this method.

Ok here is a study which helps with this. Best used on 30m chart imho. Set the timeframe to weekly
https://tos.mx/Ou1EA7x
the triangles line indicate high and lows of previous week. The study has a lot more in it, but for that strat this is imho most important part so far.

Pls backtest (especially on that spreadsheet you shared) and let me know what you think. There is also other things I would consider - like the trend on weekly chart.

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

Thank you for sharing your work on this. I will have a look and see. The spreadsheet I shared was not mine, it came from Helweg's office.

 

[codydog]

Hi, sorry to butt in and I dont encourage or discourage anyone from trying anything(in trading anyway), but I had an observation. And I have no idea who this guy is, so, read further at the risk of my being an ***** and certified know-nothing.

If these results are correct, why wouldnt the system creator simply start with a modest sum, like $5,000 on month 1, at month 2 he has 10,000, at month 3 -20,000, etc? Maybe he's just a great pal and shares secrets, I dont know, really.

My experience with HFs, is that they are packed with quants, PhDs and get pitched tons of ideas by bank math phds, brokers etc. I'd be really curious what HF would buy his stuff.

One idea might be to google the phone number on his website and see what pops up - maybe he's a quant at MIT, churning our brilliant ideas week after week. Or maybe not, I have no idea.

Safe trading to all.

 

[skynetgen]

My experience with HFs, is that they are packed with quants, PhDs and get pitched tons of ideas by bank math phds, brokers etc. I'd be really curious what HF would buy his stuff.

I used to work for quantshop. They use statistical models. Full department of math, statistics and economics PhD. 100 bill assets under management. Their returns ****ed (barely outperforming indexes on good year). Those kind of guys this system might work against

My point is there is many many ways to make money in the market, there are many more to lose it. Gotta find what works for you, no matter where it comes from. - it just need to produce positive P&L. And what comes from "phds" is not always good

 

[codydog]

Ok but most HFs when they reach a certain level, care more about keeping AUM and the fees associated with it, returns are secondary.

Just sayin, that someone pitchin' options ideas and doesnt put up a street address or basic resume of the folks (who work there,) on their site, it may be an idea to ask why. Maybe they do, I just glanced at it,and didnt see it

But if you folks make dough with them, thats great!

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

If anyone is interested, they are having another webinar on this tomorrow Fri 10-4-19 at 12:00 EST. Here is signup link-
Monday Method Option webinar signup

 

[codydog]

Is this what your guy is doing? Here's the link and scroll down to New Tools... posted on Sept 15

http://www.tradingvolatility.net/2019/

 

[skynetgen]

Thank you for sharing your work on this. I will have a look and see. The spreadsheet I shared was not mine, it came from Helweg's office.

so i checked some setups which worked for this systme ( entry as soon as next week breaks):
short: COP, BX , GOOS
long: MKC
sorta: RNG - chop up and down but worked by EOD fridday
didnt work : XYL

 

[skynetgen]

Tickers on watch this week for this strat:

LRCX​

OKTA​

ORCL​

ATVI​

TER​

NVDA​

SRPT​

BX​

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

Can I ask what you used to sort tickers to follow for the week?

 

[skynetgen]

Can I ask what you used to sort tickers to follow for the week?

Setups which are closer for the upside week from previous week. (And BX closer to downside)

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

Setups which are closer for the upside week from previous week. (And BX closer to downside)

Do you have a scan for this by chance. Also, do you have a list of the most active option tickers?

 

[skynetgen]

Do you have a scan for this by chance. Also, do you have a list of the most active option tickers?

"Most active options"? what do you mean (like average options trade volume elevated?) - no I dont , but wish I did.
This week is probably not best for testing this strat. Very headline whipsaw driven

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

Yes, a list of most active options like Mark Helweg said in webinar they scan a list of 190 most actively traded options

 

[hockeycoachdoug]

I rewatched webinar last night and asked how he chooses what 10 trades to recommend out of the 190 tickers he follows. Got a very vague answer that he uses a proprietary filter to determine, but there are many other very profitable trades outside of the 10 recommendations. He showed a slide of trade alerts for 9-23-19 with all levels shown. this might make it easier to replicate. He said there is a video explaining the columns "activity" and "quality" but did not disclose on the webinar. I also asked if trade doesn't trigger on Monday would you still take trade later in the week. He said yes for reversal trades, but it was up to the trader as far as entering an initial trade after Wed.
Slide of Trade Alerts with levels