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Mark Helweg's Monday Method


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I recently watched a webinar from Mark Helweg at 3xOptions called the Monday Method.
It's basic premise is that Monday is a pivotal day due to markets being closed over the weekend, placing added significance on the open Monday.

It is an option strategy that trades the expiration week entering straight puts or calls during the week and exiting on the close Friday of expiration.

The strategy also is automatic and does not rely on market direction. It is basically a bracket trade. The system is not fully disclosed and is offered as an advisory service.

Although the rules were not disclosed, it appears that an ATR is added and subtracted from the open Monday (i.e. Mon open price +/- ATR). I assume they use a 5 day period for the ATR calculation but I don't know for sure.
You buy a call or put using an "activation order" when the underlying stock price crosses through the open +/- ATR price and exit on the close Friday.
It is possible to trigger both ways meaning buy a put, exit the put and buy a call all in the expiration week.

The premise is that institutions entering or exiting positions must do so over a number of days due to their position size and the Monday open typically indicates likely direction when price goes through the ATR and the move is usually significant. They have a track record showing extremely good results. This is what i am looking for-

I need help coding a TOS indicator that does the following.

Draw a line on the chart showing the Monday open price +/- an ATR amount (would be best that the period amount can be a variable amount).
Probably best if the line colors can be changed also.
The line needs to stay on the chart for an entire week.
It would also be good if additional "target amounts" could be drawn on the chart also in the form of additional ATR unit amounts (i.e. 2x ATR, 3x ATR).

This should be a relatively simple indicator to code. It is important that it calculates based on the Monday open price +/- ATR. Any help with this would be greatly appreciated and I would suggest you try to catch the webinar- It looks like a very promising strategy. Here is a link to the current signup page for the webinar.

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@hockeycoachdoug Sounds interesting...What is their website? This one: https://3xoptions.com/ ?

As for your request, DailyOpen is the study in TOS that plots Daily or Weekly open. The rest, let me see if I can find it in my archives.

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@hockeycoachdoug Are you sure it is Monday and not Friday? I have the code that seems to be doing what you've described, but it uses the Friday.

Rich (BB code):
def ThisWeek = GetWeek() == GetLastWeek() ;
def DATR = WildersAverage(TrueRange(high(period = "day" ), close(period = "day" ), low(period = "day" )), 14);
def FridayATR = if thisweek and GetDayOfWeek(getYYYYMMDD()) ==5 then DATR else FridayATR[1];

def y= close(period = "week" )[1];
plot FridayClose = close(period = "week" )[1];

plot UB =  y + FridayATR ;
plot UB1 = y + FridayATR*2;
plot UB2 = y + FridayATR*3;

plot LB = y - FridayATR;
plot LB1 = y - FridayATR*2;
plot LB2 = y - FridayATR*3;
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Yes, I'm sure it is Monday open. The logic is that the market is closed for the weekend and things change over the weekend without any market to trade in to adjust price. Large institutions drive the market, and must adjust their positions. Dur to the size of their positions it often takes a number of days to do so.

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@hockeycoachdoug When it comes to institutions, they usually use the VWAP as a reference. I don't know, but logically, I would think that a better indicator that shows real expectations in real time would be an expected move. There are indicators that show what an expected move is based on live data from an options chain.

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John3- I agree with you, but the webinar shows a track record with a very good results. I think they do a better job explaining their thought process then I do also. Like I said they do not fully disclose the system. I am reasonably sure it is a function of atr from the Mon open according to what they talk about. You might gain more insight if you can catch the webinar. Thanks for your help so far.

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@hockeycoachdoug If it works so well, why sell it? Anybody can show a track record, but if they sell it, I bet in real trading it isn't as peachy as they claim it to be. I'll watch the webinar though

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they only sell it as an advisory service, not as a fully disclosed system. They say they are in talks to license to a hedge fund to trade it. Could just be talk. If you do catch the webinar, let me know your thoughts.

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@hockeycoachdoug I've watched the webinar. My reaction: oy vey! Let's break it down:

1) He repeatedly claimed that they don't predict direction. Fact: He does predict direction. That is what his Green/Red lines do.

2) Contrary to what you said earlier in this thread, he did not show any proof that this strategy is profitable. He showed a marketing slide (only 10 weeks of alleged trading results) which did not contain any actual trades that he took. Does he trade his own strategy?

3) Your claim that he allegedly said that they are trying to sell/license this system to hedge/mutual funds makes zero sense. He is supposedly following what they are doing, remember, so why would they be interested in buying what they already know and doing anyway?

4) From his slides, the price often came back to the trigger line for a re-test, which tells me that this is simply 0.5 or 1 deviation line from the open. But it doesn't really matter what it is. The trades that worked, broke out and trended for the whole week. So simply using 30 minutes or 1 hour ORB from Monday's open will produce the same results.

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I guess that means you are not a fan of their methodology. I wasn't overly impressed either. That's why I wanted to see if an indicator could be somewhat replicated to see for myself. I appreciate your input, as well as the fact you took the time to watch the webinar. Much appreciated.

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@hockeycoachdoug You're welcome. I don't trade stocks, but the basic market structure is the same regardless of what you trade. ATR strategies work if used correctly, but subtracting/adding 5-day ATR from Monday's open does not make sense to me, why would it work? It is not part of the market structure, the components are, i.e., the open and ATR, but I would not put them together this way.

If you want to see how ATR works on a Weekly time frame, here is an example, the white line is the weekly open:

https://www.screencast.com/t/Kflooj4fF The cloud is an expected reversal zone.

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I saw the webinar too. Thought it would be easy to find someone to code the line graphics, one the correct equation is replicated. I though it based on ATR of some sort too. But, I think the harder part is finding scan parameters to find the stocks which are ramping up/down in volume, or candidates for the institutional trades beginning after the open.

Interesting webinar, if I it works, great... I don’t know anything about Mark Helweg. His service seemed pricey, and why have a service if his theories work so well.

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Also, I believe he uses premarket volume on Monday morning. (I asked in the webinar, no one answered). He also showed some of the trades that he was in this past week. And they were profitable. (I compared his slides to current charts, one was COST and one CSCO). I agree with John3 that some of this may be BS, but I am still curious what equation and scan they use to come up with the strategy. Seems worth looking into further. Anyone?

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@KILLINIT His strategy only works if the price trends away from Monday's open. So, unless the goal is to make it mysterious and "smart," using an opening range indicator produces the same results. If the price trends away from Monday's opening range (up or down), you have the same strategy.

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John3- I would like to begin by thanking you for your help. Can you give what additional code I would need to add to the DailyOpen indicator included with TOS to then calculate and plot a horizontal line that is both above and below the open line (using the weekly open option) by a variable period ATR and make those lines continue to plot for the rest of the week like the WeeklyOpen line. Thanks in advance for your help.

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@hockeycoachdoug I don't have the code to plot the Monday's ORB into expansion for the rest of the week, but for those that know how to code, it should be easy to do. You can use the ORB indicator that has been posted on this site.

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I am not looking to plot ORB, I am looking to calculate and plot ATR (Average True Range) using a user input variable of the number of period bars used to calculate the ATR (i.e. 5 period Atr, 10 period ATR). What I would end up with is the horizontal line at the WeeklyOpen plotting across the whole week as well as a horizontal line above and below the WeeklyOpen line that is WeeklyOpen +/- the variable period ATR line across the whole week also. Is that a little clearer what I hope to accomplish?

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