How to calculate tomorrows close price

J007RMC

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2019 Donor
Given no news, events/tweets the only calculation I know is: subtract previous close from current day close take that number, and divide by yesterdays close then multiply by 10 and add to the current day close for estimation close the following day.

This is equivalent to the "percent error" formula does anyone use a different method?
 
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XeoNoX

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bcf.png
 

J007RMC

Well-known member
2019 Donor
Not gonna lie, I think it would be fun to write a study that plots that price for the next day just to see how many times Smokey gets close to it!
No magic scripts generally I get close most days/minus volatility an hour up until 12:30or less so I'm lurking lol. Today both my apple and ba were cents to the estimates but of course, it changes it gets me into the area of estimation so I least have a clue good enough for me.

I had an estimated 15.13 for apple and 167,96 for ba you will never hit it but you can know the area you need to be. so the brokers' trade after the close but you can get it close...better than horseshoes and hand grenades, If not for the apple event god bless apple I would have closed within .50 not rabbit out od the hat here.

Honestly, the formula has credibility and straight out of high school chemistry. Give er a spin. Today BA closed at 168.55 diffs off .59/ my estimate 167.96 from yesterday's after. close...

Well, who cares about apple I'm in till Tue. My point is baring events/news/tweets. I've no need to convince anyone I use it every day....give her a spin. just a very simple formula. The percent error formula. Non-believers lol love it.

BA close Wed 164/ close Thur 166.46 my estimation today's close at 167.96 off close by .59 and lurking lol so do the math. Just another tool to add to the box really
 
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FoxEatsGekko

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Is this somewhere along the lines of what you're hoping to achieve? (I couldn't help myself)

Code:
def c = close(period = AggregationPeriod.DAY);
def smokeys_calc = (((c[1] - c[2]) / c[2]) * 10) + c[1];
plot smokeys_prediction = smokeys_calc;
smokeys_prediction.SetLineWeight(1);
smokeys_prediction.SetDefaultColor(Color.Cyan);
 

FoxEatsGekko

New member
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Maybe this would be more elegant since nobody cares about the past days, only today:
Code:
# SmokeysCrystalBall
# https://usethinkscript.com/threads/how-to-calculate-tomorrows-close-price.4090
# @FoxEatsGekko
def c = close(period = AggregationPeriod.DAY);
def smokeys_calc = (((c[1] - c[2]) / c[2]) * 10) + c[1];
AddLabel(yes,"Future Close: " + smokeys_calc,Color.Cyan);
 

FoxEatsGekko

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Other than giving you some sort of mental stops to work from, I fail to see the purpose of this. When you backtest any of the stocks for a few days, all it reveals is that the estimate close is usually within 3% of the actual close .... which, in reality, is probably the average trading range of nearly every stock.
 

Art

Member
One thing you never know in the market is what it'll be the next day, but experimenting doesn't hurt. @FoxEatsGekko one thing I noticed, that the plot in your first code and the label numbers don't match. I can't say though which one is right. The following code match with your plot

The plot shows up, the label price is down, and etc

Code:
def c = close(period = AggregationPeriod.DAY);
def smokeys_calc = (((c - c[1]) / c[1]) * 10) + c;
AddLabel(yes,"Future Close " + smokeys_calc,Color.Cyan);

Note: I suck at coding
 

FoxEatsGekko

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Maybe I didn't understand the OP question then. " subtract previous close from current day close..." When I read this, my assumption would be that the current day has already closed. If the market has closed on October 9th and it's now 7:30PM, wouldn't 'Close[1]' show me the closed value that just happened 4 hours ago?
 

Art

Member
Like I mentioned, I'm not a coder. I can't say which one is right, I don't even know if mine is correctly coded. I just added both your codes to my chart, compared the plot and the label code prices and they didn't match. The plot goes one way the label is the opposite way.
 

J007RMC

Well-known member
2019 Donor
@FoxEatsGekko Thanks for back testing this I see your point that makes sense now.

Correct subtract yesterday from the end of current day. Divide the difference by previous day. The number you now have multiply by 100. Add this to current days close.

Thanks

BA

166.46-164 is 2.46 so 2.46 div by 164 is .015 x 100

Equals tomorrow’s close at

1.5 plus 166.46 + 1.5 equals tomorrows close at 167.96
 
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