Game Theory - Rock, Paper, Scissors

T

The Grim One

New member
I don’t want you to click on an external link. I’m not selling training/education. I don’t want you to buy a product, or join my FB group.
In short... I have 0 financial steak/hopes in your beliefs/behavior.

General thoughts on current retail trading methodology:

Institutions have sunk considerable resources into algorithm trading.
90 90 90 trade rule says most people lose. Most of them probably don’t come back.
Pros have all the data on exactly how they lose.
Common strategy says buy on an upswing and ride to profit. Because people buy ”winners”.
Pros sell you those winning stocks and buy them back at a discount, when people sell into a slump.
Their automated trading is very efficient. Doesn’t rely on FIFO orders. Always gets the price it wants.
I have a post here that shows how you can see this in action on any institutionally held stock on any trading day:
https://usethinkscript.com/threads/k-i-s-s-rsi-swing-trading.3089/This leaves very little/to no scalping margin on the table.
We feed the pros our liquidity. ($)
Tweaking MACD(etc) indicators for the nth time can’t beat it. Their algorithms are too good, they have too much buying power, and their trades resolve before yours.
Price movements that can beat it are easy to spot simply watching stock news. No fancy indicator required.
I sincerely hope you catch it in time to ride profits.

Conclusion:
They set the stage/define the rules of the game.
Trading in that environment and hoping to beat them is financial suicide.
Tweak all you want, there’s no smart way to play a losing/zero sum game.
There’s a reason certain strategies almost work. No, there is no magic variable to find.
If the strategy is all over YouTube, forget it and every variation of it. (90 90 90)


What to do?
Well, 90 90 90 says it hasn’t been seen yet, or at least isn’t well advertised. And probably won’t be.
Broadstrokes... change mentality and find a way to make what the pros are doing work for us.
Not trying to scalp intraday fluctuations is a good start.
In the link above I give an idea... I don’t see the stock scanning idea being looked for/mentioned all over. That’s a good sign.
It is but one idea, I’d love to see more. There’s no smart way to get our rock to beat their paper. We have to solve for scissors.
 

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