Keep an eye out on the market internals. I'm sure that you are already aware of that but in case not, I helped a reader on another thread of this forum better understand what that entails. Stay safe folks. With the market as over extended as it is, be prepared for the inevitable should it come to pass
Maybe, maybe not. It can go longer and stronger than expected. I personally use 3 months verticals/butterflies to give the thesis space and offset time decay.
- this as opposed to straight puts. They can work out if the timing is perfect, but I been burned many times trying to do perfect timing, so I rather now go with more conservative but more consistent approach, by limiting profits but also limiting losses from timing/time decay
So as you can see market was already positioned short. news only served as excuse to move it down. Catalysts are just that - excuses. The actual move is already decided ahead of time. When they dont want it - market wont move no matter the news (or spike and faded quickly back)- but when they do - news suddenly matter