Picking the market bottom

[TickTockTony]

Does anyone have any recommended advice to pick the market bottom?

Would you use the RUA, VIX, DJA S&P and treat it like you would any stock entry signal. IE Buy the dip plus your favorite entry indicator.

Use moving averages. Fibonacci retracements. What’s your thoughts.

 

[rene6985]

I use the SPX option 0 DTE to pick what is the bottom of the day. I use excel and make a copy of the Option data on TOS. I make calculation between calls and puts. The difference between the Option trade is the direction where the market is going. The excel file below (09/25/23) show how the early morning is going for the SPX , and the 4300 puts where growing bigger and that is what the direction of the bottom is , as soon as it get near it profit taking and the market went up, Same thing today the buildup was in 4250 and it hit it but still there is a continuous buildup of the option puts up to 4240 and it hit it, My target for the low today is 4250 (09/27/23). As soon as 4240 is hit in the SPX, it went up and go bullish.

 

[TickTockTony]

Thanks for your response. Perhaps I didn't explain my question properly. I am very familiar with your recommended indicators and strategy. I have looked at that page several times and carefully analyzed your trade examples.

My question is regarding the best course of action when the entire market is in a downtrend or correction. By the time the Dow is down 7% all of my stops have been triggered. Leaving me to predict if the market is going to drop 20, 30% or more. Knowing when to reenter and not be faked out by a transient upturn is difficult. There is always the urge to make back the money you've just lost in the initial 7% drop. This leaves me waiting and attempting to predict the upturn of the market.

My question to you is do you use the same strategies when looking at the market compared to individual stock picks.

I am a swing trader that only enters long positions and a firm believer of “the trend is your friend “ the problem is with that in a downward trend the guessing the bottom there is only the fragile beginnings of a uptrend.

I've listened to advice to use Fibonacci retracements or Elliot waves.

I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on this subject.

 

[iFrostyy]

I use the SPX option 0 DTE to pick what is the bottom of the day. I use excel and make a copy of the Option data on TOS. I make calculation between calls and puts. The difference between the Option trade is the direction where the market is going. The excel file below (09/25/23) show how the early morning is going for the SPX , and the 4300 puts where growing bigger and that is what the direction of the bottom is , as soon as it get near it profit taking and the market went up, Same thing today the buildup was in 4250 and it hit it but still there is a continuous buildup of the option puts up to 4240 and it hit it, My target for the low today is 4250 (09/27/23). As soon as 4240 is hit in the SPX, it went up and go bullish.

Little confused what numbers you are pulling here and where the sum comes from. Can you explain like I'm a 5 year old kid please