15-Minute Momentum Filter - SPY/QQQ only

[NISSAVINIS]

Can this be translated into an indicator with watchlist+scanner?

#15-Minute Momentum Filter – Manual Execution Checklist  with 3-Zone Confidence System (+/-10% Tolerance)


Time zone: All times EST (New York market time) 
Primary instruments: SPY & QQQ short-dated options (0DTE preferred) 
Default action: WAIT / CASH unless confidence meets zone threshold


## Confidence Zones (with +/-10% buffer)


| Confidence Range | Zone Name              | Allowed Actions                              | Size / Aggressiveness          | Example Confidence |
|------------------|------------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|--------------------|
| ≥90%             | Strong / Aggressive    | Buy Calls / Buy Puts (full size)<br>Sell Premium (full size) | Full size (1–2 contracts)      | 90–94%             |
| 80–89%           | Medium / Cautious      | Buy Calls / Buy Puts (half size)<br>Sell Calls / Sell Puts (full size)<br>Sell Premium (full size) | Half size directional<br>Full credit | 80–89%             |
| 70–79%           | Borderline / Very Cautious | Sell Premium only (half size)<br>Buy Calls/Puts only if ORB strongly confirms | Half size or less              | 70–79%             |
| <70%             | Low / No Trade         | **Wait / Cash only**                         | No position                    | <70%               |


## A. Pre-Market Preparation (8:00 AM – 9:15 AM EST)


1. Open thinkorswim (or broker with real-time Level 2 & option chains) 
2. Load SPY & QQQ charts (5-min or 15-min) side-by-side 
3. Open MarketWatch → Quotes → add: /ES, /NQ, VIX, NVDA, AAPL, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA 
4. Open Trade → All Products → SPY & QQQ chains (today expiry + next 1–2 weeklys) 
5. Set alerts: VIX 18/21/26, NVDA ±1.5–2%, VIX futures shift 
6. At 9:15 AM EST – record baseline: 


   - SPY pre-market price ______ 
   - QQQ pre-market price ______ 
   - /ES % change ______ 
   - /NQ % change ______ 
   - VIX spot & front-month ______ 
   - NVDA pre-market % change ______ 
   - Mag7 quick %: AAPL ___ META ___ MSFT ___ AMZN ___ GOOGL ___ TSLA ___ NVDA ___ 
   - IV ATM today + next weekly (SPY/QQQ) ______ 
   - Early unusual options volume/blocks ______ 


## B. Market Open – First 15 Minutes (9:30 AM – 9:45 AM EST)


7. 9:30 AM – Record open prices 
8. 9:35 AM – 5-min ORB: High/Low, break direction → lean 
9. 9:45 AM – 15-min ORB: High/Low, confirmed break → stronger lean


## C. Every 15 Minutes Checklist (9:45 AM – 4:00 PM EST)


Update label every 15 minutes (9:45, 10:00, 10:15, …, 3:45 PM)


| Item # | Check                                      | Value / Observation                          | Green / Red / Yellow |
|--------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------|

| 1–11   | SPY spot, QQQ spot, /ES % , /NQ %, VIX, NVDA %, IV proxy, volume/blocks, gamma hint, Mag7 % | —                                            | —                    |
| 12     | Confidence score (calculate from grid)     | Apply +/- 10% tolerance to final number      | %                    |


**Confidence Scoring Grid** – add/subtract points:


- +25 VIX <18 
- +15 VIX 18–19 
- +10 futures both green 
- +15 NVDA steady/up 
- +10 NVDA weak/down 
- +20 IV SPY <20% AND QQQ <26% 
- +15 IV moderate low (20–25%) 
- +20 heavy directional volume + blocks 
- +10 gamma positive 
- –15 gamma negative 
- –20 VIX >22 
- –10 mixed futures 


## D. Decision Tree – Apply in Order


1. Strong zone (≥90%) + VIX <19 + green drivers → **Buy Calls** (full size) 
2. Medium zone (80–89%) + red drivers → **Buy Puts** (half size) 
3. Medium zone (≥85%) + high IV + chop/range → **Sell Premium** (iron condor full size) 
4. Medium zone (≥80%) + upside capped → **Sell Calls** (bear call spread full size) 
5. Medium zone (≥80%) + downside limited → **Sell Puts** (bull put spread full size) 
6. Otherwise → **Wait / Cash**


## E. Entry Timing & Strike Rules


**Buy Calls/Puts**:
- ATM or 1-strike OTM (OTM for minimized entry price) 
- Prefer 0DTE if IV <30% and momentum clear 
- Weekly (Mar 6/13) if IV >30–40% or theta concern 
- Enter only 10:00 AM – 2:30 PM EST (best momentum window)


**Sell Calls/Puts/Premium**:
- Defined-risk spreads only (iron condor, credit spreads) 
- 0–7 DTE (shorter = faster theta) 
- Enter 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST (max theta decay) 
- Wide wings for iron condor (30–40 point range) in high VIX


## F. Exit Rules (all actions)


- Directional: <80% conf OR flip OR near max run-up (80–95% of peak) 
- Premium Sell: Near breakeven OR VIX >28–30 OR theta goal 
- Hard stop: –$50–$80 per contract/spread 
- EOD close: 3:55–3:58 PM EST


## G. Logging & P&L Tracking (every 15 min & EOD if possible)


**End of Day Routine (4:00–4:15 PM EST)**
- Close any open positions