15-Minute Momentum Filter - SPY/QQQ only

[NISSAVINIS]

Can this be translated into an indicator with watchlist+scanner?

#15-Minute Momentum Filter – Manual Execution Checklist  with 3-Zone Confidence System (+/-10% Tolerance)


Time zone: All times EST (New York market time) 
Primary instruments: SPY & QQQ short-dated options (0DTE preferred) 
Default action: WAIT / CASH unless confidence meets zone threshold


## Confidence Zones (with +/-10% buffer)


| Confidence Range | Zone Name              | Allowed Actions                              | Size / Aggressiveness          | Example Confidence |
|------------------|------------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|--------------------|
| ≥90%             | Strong / Aggressive    | Buy Calls / Buy Puts (full size)<br>Sell Premium (full size) | Full size (1–2 contracts)      | 90–94%             |
| 80–89%           | Medium / Cautious      | Buy Calls / Buy Puts (half size)<br>Sell Calls / Sell Puts (full size)<br>Sell Premium (full size) | Half size directional<br>Full credit | 80–89%             |
| 70–79%           | Borderline / Very Cautious | Sell Premium only (half size)<br>Buy Calls/Puts only if ORB strongly confirms | Half size or less              | 70–79%             |
| <70%             | Low / No Trade         | **Wait / Cash only**                         | No position                    | <70%               |


## A. Pre-Market Preparation (8:00 AM – 9:15 AM EST)


1. Open thinkorswim (or broker with real-time Level 2 & option chains) 
2. Load SPY & QQQ charts (5-min or 15-min) side-by-side 
3. Open MarketWatch → Quotes → add: /ES, /NQ, VIX, NVDA, AAPL, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA 
4. Open Trade → All Products → SPY & QQQ chains (today expiry + next 1–2 weeklys) 
5. Set alerts: VIX 18/21/26, NVDA ±1.5–2%, VIX futures shift 
6. At 9:15 AM EST – record baseline: 


   - SPY pre-market price ______ 
   - QQQ pre-market price ______ 
   - /ES % change ______ 
   - /NQ % change ______ 
   - VIX spot & front-month ______ 
   - NVDA pre-market % change ______ 
   - Mag7 quick %: AAPL ___ META ___ MSFT ___ AMZN ___ GOOGL ___ TSLA ___ NVDA ___ 
   - IV ATM today + next weekly (SPY/QQQ) ______ 
   - Early unusual options volume/blocks ______ 


## B. Market Open – First 15 Minutes (9:30 AM – 9:45 AM EST)


7. 9:30 AM – Record open prices 
8. 9:35 AM – 5-min ORB: High/Low, break direction → lean 
9. 9:45 AM – 15-min ORB: High/Low, confirmed break → stronger lean


## C. Every 15 Minutes Checklist (9:45 AM – 4:00 PM EST)


Update label every 15 minutes (9:45, 10:00, 10:15, …, 3:45 PM)


| Item # | Check                                      | Value / Observation                          | Green / Red / Yellow |
|--------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------|

| 1–11   | SPY spot, QQQ spot, /ES % , /NQ %, VIX, NVDA %, IV proxy, volume/blocks, gamma hint, Mag7 % | —                                            | —                    |
| 12     | Confidence score (calculate from grid)     | Apply +/- 10% tolerance to final number      | %                    |


**Confidence Scoring Grid** – add/subtract points:


- +25 VIX <18 
- +15 VIX 18–19 
- +10 futures both green 
- +15 NVDA steady/up 
- +10 NVDA weak/down 
- +20 IV SPY <20% AND QQQ <26% 
- +15 IV moderate low (20–25%) 
- +20 heavy directional volume + blocks 
- +10 gamma positive 
- –15 gamma negative 
- –20 VIX >22 
- –10 mixed futures 


## D. Decision Tree – Apply in Order


1. Strong zone (≥90%) + VIX <19 + green drivers → **Buy Calls** (full size) 
2. Medium zone (80–89%) + red drivers → **Buy Puts** (half size) 
3. Medium zone (≥85%) + high IV + chop/range → **Sell Premium** (iron condor full size) 
4. Medium zone (≥80%) + upside capped → **Sell Calls** (bear call spread full size) 
5. Medium zone (≥80%) + downside limited → **Sell Puts** (bull put spread full size) 
6. Otherwise → **Wait / Cash**


## E. Entry Timing & Strike Rules


**Buy Calls/Puts**:
- ATM or 1-strike OTM (OTM for minimized entry price) 
- Prefer 0DTE if IV <30% and momentum clear 
- Weekly (Mar 6/13) if IV >30–40% or theta concern 
- Enter only 10:00 AM – 2:30 PM EST (best momentum window)


**Sell Calls/Puts/Premium**:
- Defined-risk spreads only (iron condor, credit spreads) 
- 0–7 DTE (shorter = faster theta) 
- Enter 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST (max theta decay) 
- Wide wings for iron condor (30–40 point range) in high VIX


## F. Exit Rules (all actions)


- Directional: <80% conf OR flip OR near max run-up (80–95% of peak) 
- Premium Sell: Near breakeven OR VIX >28–30 OR theta goal 
- Hard stop: –$50–$80 per contract/spread 
- EOD close: 3:55–3:58 PM EST


## G. Logging & P&L Tracking (every 15 min & EOD if possible)


**End of Day Routine (4:00–4:15 PM EST)**
- Close any open positions

 

[halcyonguy]

sorry, you have so many rules, i can't determine what to do with it all.

don't know what this is?
Open Trade → All Products → SPY & QQQ chains (today expiry + next 1–2 weeklys)
do you want to want to read many options? almost impossible to create many variable names for many options.

why is there a rules based point system, but outputs are dependent on a % number? how to convert points to %


too many vague rules...

• +15 NVDA steady/up what defines steady?
• +10 NVDA weak/down what defines weak?
• +15 IV moderate low (20–25%) what defines moderate ?
• +20 heavy directional volume + blocks what defines heavy directional?
• +10 gamma positive what gamma?
• –10 mixed futures what is this?

 

[rad14733]

Thinkorswim does not possess a means of doing such intensive data analysis... Such analysis would require exporting data to a spreadsheet or other data analysis software for aggregation and extrapolation...

 

[treyleblanc]

Per Chat GPT, here it is:

declare lower;

# =========================
# INPUTS
# =========================
input useSPY = yes;
input showLabels = yes;

# =========================
# DATA (proxies used where needed)
# =========================
def spy = close("SPY");
def qqq = close("QQQ");
def vix = close("VIX");
def ndx = close("NDX");
def nvda = close("NVDA");

# Futures proxies (since /ES /NQ not always accessible in studies)
def esTrend = spy > Average(spy, 20);
def nqTrend = qqq > Average(qqq, 20);

# NVDA momentum
def nvdaUp = nvda > nvda[1];
def nvdaDown = nvda < nvda[1];

# IV proxy (using VIX as approximation)
def lowIV = vix < 20;
def midIV = vix >= 20 and vix <= 25;

# Gamma proxy (trend strength via EMA slope)
def gammaPos = ExpAverage(spy, 8) > ExpAverage(spy, 21);
def gammaNeg = ExpAverage(spy, 8) < ExpAverage(spy, 21);

# Volume proxy
def vol = volume;
def avgVol = Average(volume, 20);
def highVolume = vol > avgVol * 1.5;

# =========================
# SCORING SYSTEM
# =========================
def score =
(if vix < 18 then 25 else 0) +
(if vix >= 18 and vix <= 19 then 15 else 0) +
(if esTrend and nqTrend then 10 else 0) +
(if nvdaUp then 15 else 0) +
(if nvdaDown then 10 else 0) +
(if lowIV then 20 else 0) +
(if midIV then 15 else 0) +
(if highVolume then 20 else 0) +
(if gammaPos then 10 else 0) +
(if gammaNeg then -15 else 0) +
(if vix > 22 then -20 else 0) +
(if !(esTrend and nqTrend) then -10 else 0);

# Clamp score to 0–100
def conf = Max(0, Min(100, score));

# =========================
# ZONES
# =========================
def strong = conf >= 90;
def medium = conf >= 80 and conf < 90;
def borderline = conf >= 70 and conf < 80;
def low = conf < 70;

# =========================
# LABELS
# =========================
AddLabel(showLabels, "Confidence: " + conf + "%",
if strong then Color.GREEN
else if medium then Color.YELLOW
else if borderline then Color.ORANGE
else Color.RED);

AddLabel(showLabels,
if strong then "STRONG → Buy Calls/Puts (Full)"
else if medium then "MEDIUM → Half Size / Credit Spreads"
else if borderline then "BORDERLINE → Sell Premium Only"
else "NO TRADE",
if strong then Color.GREEN
else if medium then Color.YELLOW
else if borderline then Color.ORANGE
else Color.RED);

# =========================
# SIGNAL HINTS
# =========================
plot SignalLine = conf;
SignalLine.SetLineWeight(2);

plot Over90 = 90;
Over90.SetDefaultColor(Color.GREEN);

plot Over80 = 80;
Over80.SetDefaultColor(Color.YELLOW);

plot Over70 = 70;
Over70.SetDefaultColor(Color.ORANGE);