Get your "Shorts" on!

[netarchitech]

For the Bulls out there, the last couple of weeks have been pretty difficult…I've been looking at a long-term charts and I think were just getting started headed to the downside… Buying the Dips isn't going to work in this evolving market, you have to start thinking about selling the Rips…

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Taking a look at the 10 year Monthly chart of /NQ, there are couple things that I will point out to support my assertion that we are headed lower…

1. In terms of Price Action, Price has sold off down to the Mean of the Channel (Green line) where it found some support...Since then it has bounced a little bit, but it's weak…

2. The Average Buying and Selling Volume Pressure shows the decrease in the buying pressure (Green line) while Price continued to move higher… In my estimation, this amounts to volume divergence… Meanwhile the selling pressure continues to move at a slower rate ever so higher, but we haven't hit the selloff phase yet…Like Death and Taxes, it's coming…The media is already starting talking about the potential Recession somewhere ahead…

3. Momentum is showing the fast line (Red line) breaking away to the downside and the slow line (Green line) is starting to head in that direction as well…

4. The last indicator is what I call the "MultiView"… As you can see it's in agreement with the Momentum indicator… Overall, given what the indicators are displaying, I believe we are already in a corrective phase… It just remains to be seen how much of a correction it will turn out to be…

In addition to taking a look at the indicators, I've taken some time to plot out a couple of Fibonacci projections, in order to get a better handle on where the support and resistance zones could be… First up is the Fibonacci extension…

Next is the Fibonacci retracement…

If you've read up to this point, thanks for taking the time out to do so… I'm hoping you found this informative…

What do you think? I'd like to know…

Good Luck and Good Trading


Disclaimer: This post, and the information contained within it, is intended for Education and Entertainment purposes only. It is purely speculation on my part and is not meant to be taken in any way as investment advice...

 

[netarchitech]

Seeing as how I am attempting to forecast a future price estimate for /NQ, I thought I'd do a little research to find out what other Market Forecasters are estimating...Here's what I found:

The Economy Forecast Company
https://30rates.com/nasdaq
https://longforecast.com/nasdaq-predictions

CAPEX.com
https://capex.com/en/overview/nasdaq-100-price-prediction

Top Trade Tools
https://toptradetools.cdn.spotlightr.com/watch/MTc5MzI2MQ

Elliot Wave Forecast

 

[rfb]

Seeing as how I am attempting to forecast a future price estimate for /NQ, I thought I'd do a little research to find out what other Market Forecasters are estimating...Here's what I found:

The Economy Forecast Company
https://30rates.com/nasdaq
https://longforecast.com/nasdaq-predictions

CAPEX.com
https://capex.com/en/overview/nasdaq-100-price-prediction

Top Trade Tools
https://toptradetools.cdn.spotlightr.com/watch/MTc5MzI2MQ

Elliot Wave Forecast

Great stuff! Thanks. Short squeeze for today so far.

 

[netarchitech]

@rfb:

Thanks I hope it proves helpful...

Short squeeze for today so far.

I think you're right...looks like President Trump is softening his Tariffs a little bit...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...ower-set-of-reciprocal-tariffs-191201586.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trum...pril-2-tariffs-to-the-dirty-15-142232090.html

Good Luck and Good Trading

 

[netarchitech]

The View From Here (v. 202503241503)

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1. The big green bar on the bottom represents support… Price sold off twice to that area, establishing a double-bottom and laid the foundation for a significant move higher…

2. The Sunday night opening gapped up significantly… The yellow bar represents the gap… Price will either retrace back and attempt to fill that gap or we have the beginnings of a naked virgin point of control (POC)…

The big red bar overhead represents resistance… Price rallied twice to that area, establishing a double-top… The red bar has since turned to green representing the former resistance now becoming support with Price breaking out today…

3. Price has rallied significantly into the Value Area of today's Volume Profile… The volume distribution looks a little top-heavy… Price may have gotten ahead of itself a little bit… As it is getting late in the day, I would expect there to be some profit-taking and, as a result, I don't see Price moving too much higher…

If you read this far, thanks for stopping by… If you think you might be interested, I'm going to attempt to create daily posts focusing on /MNQ using order flow (Volume Profile) and maybe the occasional trendline and/or Fibonacci projection…

Good Luck and Good Trading

 

[Kitchasap]

The View From Here (v. 202503241503)

shared chart link: http://tos.mx/!uRIKXvON MUST follow these instructions for loading shared links.
View attachment 24361

1. The big green bar on the bottom represents support… Price sold off twice to that area, establishing a double-bottom and laid the foundation for a significant move higher…

2. The Sunday night opening gapped up significantly… The yellow bar represents the gap… Price will either retrace back and attempt to fill that gap or we have the beginnings of a naked virgin point of control (POC)…

The big red bar overhead represents resistance… Price rallied twice to that area, establishing a double-top… The red bar has since turned to green representing the former resistance now becoming support with Price breaking out today…

3. Price has rallied significantly into the Value Area of today's Volume Profile… The volume distribution looks a little top-heavy… Price may have gotten ahead of itself a little bit… As it is getting late in the day, I would expect there to be some profit-taking and, as a result, I don't see Price moving too much higher…

If you read this far, thanks for stopping by… If you think you might be interested, I'm going to attempt to create daily posts focusing on /MNQ using order flow (Volume Profile) and maybe the occasional trendline and/or Fibonacci projection…

Good Luck and Good Trading

Thank you !

 

[netarchitech]

Thank you !

You are certainly welcome, @Kitchasap...

Good Luck and Good Trading

 

[netarchitech]

Since I've stated I will be focusing on Volume Profile as the main thrust of my analysis, I've done some research to provide basic information to those of you whom might be new to Volume Profile...Below is a quote from Trader Dale regarding what the shape of the Volume Profile can tell you about current conditions of the market you're trading...

A Volume Profile forms different shapes based on how volumes are distributed throughout the day. These shapes can tell us a lot about market sentiment and trading opportunities. There are four basic shapes: the D-shaped profile, the P-shaped profile, the B-shaped profile, and the thin profile. Each shape reveals key information about the market, and I’ll show you how to trade each one effectively.

For example, the D-shaped profile typically indicates balance in the market, often forming during periods of rotation. The B-shaped profile indicates strong sellers and is associated with downtrends. The P-shaped profile suggests strong buyers and is often found in uptrends. Lastly, the thin profile indicates a strong, one-sided trend with minimal pullbacks, often initiated by macro news.

Source: https://www.trader-dale.com/the-only-volume-profile-trading-guide-youll-ever-need-24-jan-25/
Video: https://youtu.be/vVMJa7dyYWE

Here is another link to an article providing a good overview of Volume Profile:
https://www.uctrading.coach/post/an-introduction-to-the-volume-profile

Hope this helps...

Good Luck and Good Trading

 

[netarchitech]

The View From Here (v. 202503251422)

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1. With Sunday night's opening gap up and subsequent price action, it looks like we have the beginnings of a naked virgin point of control (NV-POC)…Stay tuned...

2. Although Price has rallied away from the previous Resistance now Support zone, I maintain that there is the probability that Price will retrace to the zone as it returns to clear up the outstanding Gap/NV-POC...

3. Well...last time I mentioned the potential incorporation of trendlines and/or Fibonacci projections and, as luck would have it, today's Chart has a Fibonacci Extension applied highlighting significant areas of support, resistance and confluence in conjunction with the Volume Profile...

In addition to the five minute perspective above, I thought today would be a good day to add another chart to the mix...Below please find a three month daily providing additional clues as to where things might be headed via a zoomed-out perspective...

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1. In terms of Price Action, Price has rallied to just shy of the 233 EMA where I believe it will find some resistance...Ultimately, Price could rally up to the top line of the Channel, where I believe it will make a lower high and will sell off significantly…Finally, the yellow block indicates Sunday night's opening gap up...

2. The Average Buying and Selling Volume Pressure shows the substantial decrease in the selling pressure (Red line) and Price continues to move higher… Meanwhile the buying pressure (Green line) continues to move at a consistent rate ever so higher...Over the last three days, the Volume histogram highlights the
fact that the Buyers are firmly in control, as the Sellers are almost non-existent...

3. Momentum is showing the fast line (Red line) crossing the zero line, as it continues to accelerate to the upside and the slow line (Green line) is heading in that direction as well…

4. As you can see, the "MultiView" is in agreement with the Momentum indicator… Overall, despite what the indicators are displaying, I still believe we are in a corrective phase… It just remains to be seen how much of a correction it will turn out to be…

If you read this far, thanks for stopping by… If you think you might be interested, feel free to stop back as I plan on continuing to focus on /MNQ using order flow (Volume Profile)...

Good Luck and Good Trading

Disclaimer: This post, and the information contained within it, is intended for Education and Entertainment purposes only. It is purely speculation on my part and is not meant to be taken in any way as investment advice...

 

[netarchitech]

The View From Here (v. 202503262111)

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1. Today's Chart has yet another Fibonacci Extension applied highlighting significant areas of support, resistance and confluence in conjunction with the Volume Profile...

2. As previously mentioned, Price has retraced to fill 50% of Sunday's opening Gap...While I would think Price could reverse from here and move higher, the presence of a naked virgin point of control (NV-POC) makes for a tempting alternative destination not too far below...

3. It looks like we have confirmation of a naked virgin point of control (NV-POC)…Stay tuned...

Shared Chart Link: http://tos.mx/!k7XlZueC MUST follow these instructions for loading shared links

1. In terms of Price Action, after rallying to just shy of the 233 EMA, Price backs away from the 233 EMA in order to regroup for a future assault on the significant overhead resistance...Ultimately, given the right conditions, Price could rally all the way up to the top line of the Channel...Were this to happen, I believe Price would end up making a lower high and then selling off significantly…

2. The Average Buying and Selling Volume Pressure shows the substantial decrease in the buying pressure (Green line) and Price retreats temporarily from its' march northward… Meanwhile the selling pressure (Red line) makes a strong move to the upside after dropping precipitously the prior three days...

The Volume histogram highlights a reversal from the previous three days where the Buyers were firmly in control, but the resurgent Sellers have to do more than just a one day move in order to break the momentum of the Buyers...

3. With today's significant move to the downside, Momentum is showing the fast line (Red line) crossing back below the zero line. With today's selling, Momentum decelerates somewhat while the slow line (Green line) continues its' march to the upside indicating the move to the upside is still viable, despite today's significant selling…

4. Once again, as you can see, the "MultiView" is in agreement with the Momentum indicator… Overall, despite what the indicators are displaying, I still believe we are in a corrective phase… It just remains to be seen how much of a correction it will turn out to be…

As I look over this chart, I see striking similarities between the Momentum and the "MultiView"...I am left wondering if I have inadvertently constructed a collinear situation...As I ponder this situation, I recall reading about the importance of diversity with indicators in order to avoid the trap of collinearity...

As a result, upon further review, I have determined that there is no apparent collinearity at this time...

If you read this far, thanks for stopping by… If you think you might be interested, feel free to stop back as I plan on continuing to focus on /MNQ using order flow (Volume Profile)...

Good Luck and Good Trading

Disclaimer: This post, and the information contained within it, is intended for Education and Entertainment purposes only. It is purely speculation on my part and is not meant to be taken in any way as investment advice...

 

[Kitchasap]

The View From Here (v. 202503262111)

View attachment 24408
Shared Chart Link: http://tos.mx/!uRIKXvON MUST follow these instructions for loading shared links

1. Today's Chart has yet another Fibonacci Extension applied highlighting significant areas of support, resistance and confluence in conjunction with the Volume Profile...

2. As previously mentioned, Price has retraced to fill 50% of Sunday's opening Gap...While I would think Price could reverse from here and move higher, the presence of a naked virgin point of control (NV-POC) makes for a tempting alternative destination not too far below...

3. It looks like we have confirmation of a naked virgin point of control (NV-POC)…Stay tuned...


View attachment 24407
Shared Chart Link: http://tos.mx/!k7XlZueC MUST follow these instructions for loading shared links

1. In terms of Price Action, after rallying to just shy of the 233 EMA, Price backs away from the 233 EMA in order to regroup for a future assault on the significant overhead resistance...Ultimately, given the right conditions, Price could rally all the way up to the top line of the Channel...Were this to happen, I believe Price would end up making a lower high and then selling off significantly…

2. The Average Buying and Selling Volume Pressure shows the substantial decrease in the buying pressure (Green line) and Price retreats temporarily from its' march northward… Meanwhile the selling pressure (Red line) makes a strong move to the upside after dropping precipitously the prior three days...

The Volume histogram highlights a reversal from the previous three days where the Buyers were firmly in control, but the resurgent Sellers have to do more than just a one day move in order to break the momentum of the Buyers...

3. With today's significant move to the downside, Momentum is showing the fast line (Red line) crossing back below the zero line. With today's selling, Momentum decelerates somewhat while the slow line (Green line) continues its' march to the upside indicating the move to the upside is still viable, despite today's significant selling…

4. Once again, as you can see, the "MultiView" is in agreement with the Momentum indicator… Overall, despite what the indicators are displaying, I still believe we are in a corrective phase… It just remains to be seen how much of a correction it will turn out to be…

As I look over this chart, I see striking similarities between the Momentum and the "MultiView"...I am left wondering if I have inadvertently constructed a collinear situation...As I ponder this situation, I recall reading about the importance of diversity with indicators in order to avoid the trap of collinearity...

As a result, upon further review, I have determined that there is no apparent collinearity at this time...

If you read this far, thanks for stopping by… If you think you might be interested, feel free to stop back as I plan on continuing to focus on /MNQ using order flow (Volume Profile)...

Good Luck and Good Trading

Disclaimer: This post, and the information contained within it, is intended for Education and Entertainment purposes only. It is purely speculation on my part and is not meant to be taken in any way as investment advice...

Great Analysis and sharing your thoughts!.

 

[netarchitech]

Hey there @Kitchasap:

Thanks for stopping by and offering the kind words of encouragement...Much appreciated!

Good Luck and Good Trading

 

[netarchitech]

The View From Here (v. 202503272118)

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1. With today's Price Action, Sunday's gap up is officially closed… I believe today's choppy/ranging Price Action is part of an consolidation/accumulation pattern after Wednesday's markdown. It remains to be seen how everything will unfold, as today's Price Action could be basing and establishing a higher low that can serve as a foundation for another push higher…

2. With the debut of the naked virgin point of control (NV-POC), I believe we may have a downside target for Friday… It is interesting that the 127.2% Fibonacci extension landed in roughly the same area as the NV-POC… I further believe that the confluence of the NV-POC and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension provides a magnet for Price… We shall see what develops on Friday…

3. Today's Price Action was certainly difficult to navigate, as there was no clear trend established… When you're chopping and ranging on a 5 minute chart, it may be worthwhile to move up to a higher timeframe, in order to eliminate the noise…

The reason why I choose a 5 day 5 minute chart in this trading log is because it provides me with a zoomed-out view… This zoomed-out view condenses price action and individual candles into a pseudo-line… I find this pseudo-line easier to follow, as it interacts with areas of support and resistance, as well as Fibonacci retracements and extensions...

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1. Looking at the daily chart, in terms of Price Action, I apologize for the Fibonacci extension lines covering up Price, but there is enough there to see that downward momentum is starting to dissipate… I still think the Price will move down to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and, as a result, finish off the NV-POC… We shall see…

2. In terms of the Volume indicator, we can see that the last 2 days had heavy selling, preceded by the aforementioned 3 days of heavy buying, leaving me wondering who's going to win this battle of wills… My money is on the Bears because the longer term charts are bearish…

3. As for the Anchored Momentum indicator, after 2 days of considerable selling, momentum has taken a hit… The upward trajectory is starting to bend and, given that both the fast line (red line) and the slow line (green line) are below the zero line, there is no assurance that this rally to the upside has legs… I still contend that we are going down further, perhaps much further, and therefore this current move amounts to nothing more than a countertrend rally…

4. Well, it is with some sadness and regret that I have to inform you that the "MultiView" has been retired… What was I thought a promising indicator has turned out to be a disappointment…

I'm disappointed because I thought normalization worked… Unfortunately, while it appears to be stable on the surface, the "MultiView" exhibits repainting-like behavior… I had my suspicions and I dispelled them, but, more importantly, I've discovered the indicator to take its place… @Ajordan930's Inverted VIX…

The Anchored Momentum and the Inverted VIX are different, yet they share similarities as well… I'm looking forward to employing the two together in the days ahead…

If you read this far, thanks for stopping by… If you think you might be interested, feel free to stop back as I plan on continuing to focus on /MNQ using order flow (Volume Profile)...

Good Luck and Good Trading

Disclaimer: This post, and the information contained within it, is intended for Education and Entertainment purposes only. It is purely speculation on my part and is not meant to be taken in any way as investment advice...