Magical Numbers - Time vs. Bars

[whoDAT]

In running a couple custom studies (that I'm under obligation to not disclose the script) -- I see periodicity and would to hear your feedback.
I've seen the same "magic numbers" in many studies and products.

For example on a 15-min chart (#bars, win rate %)
410 - 77%
460 - 82%
510 - 79%

On a 30 minute chart:
200 - 72%
230 - 80% *this has 15% more $ profit than the below 260 periods
260 - 79%

So what's so magical about 460 on a 15 min chart? or 230 on a 30 min chart?
Well - its 5 days X 23 hours worth, or exactly 1 week of trading for this FOREX product.

Even weird studies with long averages have great results.
Another study on a 15-min chart FOREX product. (with similar results on a US index).
1280 - 87%
1380 - 91% * $ won here is 20% more than the 1480 even with similar win rates.
1480 - 90%

1380 periods equals exactly 15 days of trading - exactly 3 weeks - in a 15-min chart.

Anywho.. Has anyone experienced similar results? Is this something you program into your studies? I expect some periodicity in many markets due to structural inputs and suspect we should pay more attention to these magic number of periods.

 

[rad14733]

@whoDAT Are those first numbers Moving Average lengths and, if so, any special Average Type...???

 

[whoDAT]

@whoDAT Are those first numbers Moving Average lengths and, if so, any special Average Type...???

Specifically - Exponential moving average length.

 

[rad14733]

@whoDAT Yes, there are correlations to average lengths for charting... For example, 21 is the average number of trading days in a month (252 trading days / 12)... Other lengths are sometimes based on either Fibonacci numbers (3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc), or prime numbers... I have read that some traders use numbers such as those you noted in your first post... It's all about what works for you and/or what matches your superstitions...

 

[antwerks]

A market regime + timing engine based off the weekly and 3 week cycle engine

It tells you:

• Who is in control (bulls vs bears)
• Whether the market is coiled or expanding
• When a move is likely starting

COMPONENTS​

HISTOGRAM (Green / Red bars)​

Short-term (1-week) trend strength

• Green → bullish momentum
• Red → bearish momentum
• Bigger bars → stronger move

This is your execution bias

CYAN LINE​

Higher timeframe (3-week) trend

• Above 0 → macro bullish
• Below 0 → macro bearish

This is your direction filter

DOTS (Compression)​

Low volatility = energy building

• Market is coiling
• Move is coming soon

This is your setup phase

ARROWS (Expansion Trigger)​

Compression THEN expansion release

• Marks the moment the move starts
• Highest probability timing

This is your entry timing signal

SIMPLE HOW TO USE​

BEST TRADE (A+)​

1. Histogram = green or red
2. Cyan line = same direction
3. Yellow dots appeared recently
4. Arrow fires

Then use SMC for entry

AVOID​

• Histogram flipping colors rapidly
• Cyan line opposite direction
• No compression before move

That = chop / low quality

ONE-LINE SUMMARY​

Histogram = now
Cyan line = bigger trend
Dots = energy building
Arrows = move starting

---

Ultra-condensed 2-rule checklist you can literally trade off in seconds:

---

2-RULE SYSTEM​

RULE 1 — DIRECTION (Don’t fight this)​

Trade ONLY in the direction of alignment:

• Histogram + Cyan BOTH GREEN → LONGS ONLY
• Histogram + Cyan BOTH RED → SHORTS ONLY

If they disagree - NO TRADE

RULE 2 — TIMING (This is the money)​

Enter ONLY when:

• Yellow dots (compression) happened
• AND Arrow just printed (expansion trigger)

A+ TRADE = BOTH RULES MET​

Direction aligned + Compression → Arrow
Then use your favorite entry precision tool

QUICK AVOID FILTER​

Don’t trade if:

• No recent compression
• Histogram flipping colors
• Cyan line opposite

That’s chop / fake moves

5-SECOND READ​

• Green/Green → look longs
• Red/Red → look shorts
• Yellow → wait
• Arrow → go

EVEN SIMPLER- Align → Coil → Fire​

# A market regime + timing engine
# WEEKLY_ENGINE_MACRO_CYCLE_ALIGNMENT
# ANTWERKS 04/17/2026
########################################################

declare lower;

#========================
# AUTO TIMEFRAME DETECTION
#========================
def agg = GetAggregationPeriod();

def is5m  = agg == AggregationPeriod.FIVE_MIN;
def is15m = agg == AggregationPeriod.FIFTEEN_MIN;
def is30m = agg == AggregationPeriod.THIRTY_MIN;

def weekLength =
    if is5m then 1380
    else if is15m then 460
    else if is30m then 230
    else 460;

def threeWeekLength = weekLength * 3;

#========================
# WEEKLY ENGINE (FAST)
#========================
def emaW = ExpAverage(close, weekLength);
def slopeW = emaW - emaW[10];

def atrW = Average(TrueRange(high, close, low), weekLength);
def normW = slopeW / atrW;

#========================
# 3-WEEK ENGINE (SLOW)
#========================
def ema3W = ExpAverage(close, threeWeekLength);
def slope3W = ema3W - ema3W[20];

def atr3W = Average(TrueRange(high, close, low), threeWeekLength);
def norm3W = slope3W / atr3W;

#========================
# STATES
#========================
def bullW = normW > 0.02;
def bearW = normW < -0.02;

def bull3W = norm3W > 0.02;
def bear3W = norm3W < -0.02;

def alignBull = bullW and bull3W;
def alignBear = bearW and bear3W;

def conflict =
    (bullW and bear3W) or
    (bearW and bull3W);

#========================
# HISTOGRAM (WEEKLY)
#========================
plot WeeklyCycle = normW;
WeeklyCycle.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.HISTOGRAM);
WeeklyCycle.SetLineWeight(3);

WeeklyCycle.AssignValueColor(
    if alignBull then Color.GREEN
    else if alignBear then Color.RED
    else if conflict then Color.YELLOW
    else Color.GRAY
);

#========================
# 3-WEEK OVERLAY (LINE)
#========================
def slope3 = norm3W - norm3W[5];

plot MacroCycle = norm3W;
MacroCycle.SetDefaultColor(Color.CYAN);
MacroCycle.SetLineWeight(2);
MacroCycle.AssignValueColor(
    if norm3W > 0 and slope3 > 0 then Color.GREEN
    else if norm3W > 0 and slope3 <= 0 then Color.DARK_GREEN
    else if norm3W < 0 and slope3 < 0 then Color.RED
    else if norm3W < 0 and slope3 >= 0 then Color.DARK_RED
    else Color.GRAY
);
#========================
# ZERO LINE
#========================
plot Zero = 0;
Zero.SetDefaultColor(Color.GRAY);
Zero.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);

#========================
# LABEL ENGINE
#========================
AddLabel(yes,
    if alignBull then "FULL BULL ALIGNMENT (1W + 3W)"
    else if alignBear then "FULL BEAR ALIGNMENT (1W + 3W)"
    else if conflict then "CYCLE CONFLICT (CHOP / TRANSITION)"
    else "WEAK / NEUTRAL",
    
    if alignBull then Color.GREEN
    else if alignBear then Color.RED
    else if conflict then Color.YELLOW
    else Color.GRAY
);

#========================
# VOLATILITY COMPRESSION
#========================

input shortATRLength = 14;

# short-term volatility
def atrShort = Average(TrueRange(high, close, low), shortATRLength);

# already defined:
# atrW (weekly ATR)

def compressionRatio = atrShort / atrW;

# thresholds (tuneable)
input compressionThreshold = 0.45;
input expansionThreshold = 1.2;

def isCompression = compressionRatio < compressionThreshold;
def isExpansion = compressionRatio > expansionThreshold;
def compressZone =
    if isCompression then 0 else Double.NaN;
def compressionRelease =
    isCompression[1] and !isCompression;

plot ExpansionTrigger =
    if compressionRelease then normW else Double.NaN;

ExpansionTrigger.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_UP);
ExpansionTrigger.SetDefaultColor(Color.CYAN);
ExpansionTrigger.SetLineWeight(3);

def exhaustion =
    normW > 0.08 or normW < -0.08;

AddCloud(compressZone, 0, Color.DARK_GRAY, Color.DARK_GRAY);

plot CompressionDot =
    if isCompression then normW else Double.NaN;

CompressionDot.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.POINTS);
CompressionDot.SetDefaultColor(Color.YELLOW);
CompressionDot.SetLineWeight(3);

plot ExpansionDot =
    if isExpansion then normW else Double.NaN;

ExpansionDot.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.POINTS);
ExpansionDot.SetDefaultColor(Color.CYAN);
ExpansionDot.SetLineWeight(3);

AddLabel(yes,
    if isCompression then "COMPRESSION (BUILDING ENERGY)"
    else if isExpansion then "EXPANSION (MOVE ACTIVE)"
    else "NORMAL VOL",
    
    if isCompression then Color.YELLOW
    else if isExpansion then Color.CYAN
    else Color.GRAY
);

AddLabel(exhaustion,
    if normW > 0 then "BULL EXHAUSTION"
    else "BEAR EXHAUSTION",
    Color.ORANGE
);

https://imgur.com/yFCPT5T

https://imgur.com/J4prQrA

 

[antwerks]

Funny how we rediscover "discoveries". I seem to do this regularly lol... Great minds think alike!
How long has THIS exact combination existed? (Magical Numbers - Time vs. Bars)

In this exact form? Maybe last 10–15 years (quant + retail hybrid thinking). But components individually:

• Cycles → 100+ years
• Volatility expansion → ~40 years
• Multi-timeframe alignment → decades
• Relative strength → ~20+ years
• And now again, today!!!

https://imgur.com/kYwWUFa

 

[El Kabong]

Go to bed! HaHa