Opening Range Breakout Indicator for ThinkorSwim

markos

markos

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This caught my eye in the first post - "...As of 01.03.2017 You have just under a 52% probability that a DAILY bar will close green. So a 60% to 70% probability is a nice edge. ..."

Does anyone have the data to substantiate this claim?
Codydog, that is straight from Mobius.
 
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tomsk

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Codydog, that is straight from Mobius.

@markos That's exactly right, here's the entire quote from Mobius for greater context, It also includes some usage notes on the ORB

How to use This ORB study: The yellow dashed line is the first period line and represents the mean of the remaining Opening Range trading. The dominant time spent above or below this line typically determines the day’s trend. Green points indicate a close at EOD above the yellow line. Red Points a close below the yellow line. Yellow points a neutral or balanced day, close near the yellow line. The Opening Range is plotted with a green and red dashed line. Trades are taken when there is an open outside these range lines. up to 5 Targets are generated with Average True Range as the underlying algorithm. When price crosses the first target line 1/2 the trade should be taken as Risk Off profit and a stop should be placed at the entry point. If price crosses further targets stops should be moved to the preceding target until stopped or your profit target is met. Initial Risk Stops are an open below the bar's low prior to entry or the Risk Lines plotted.

FYI on the color of Probable close direction points

Statistically these have proved between 60% and 70% correct. Taking trades against the direction of ORB should be considered counter trend trades. As of 01.03.2017 you have just under a 52% probability that a DAILY bar will close green. So a 60% to 70% probability is a nice edge.
 
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HighBredCloud

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@tomsk What do you know about the initial risk input? Mobius version has it set to 1.0 where is the one BenTen posted in this thread is missing but appears to be set around 2.0 area...This shifts the dashed yellow line mentioned as well as the RED and GREEN "risk lines" as well for a possible earlier entry.
 
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tomsk

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There are literally hundreds of different versions of ORB out there so you'll need to examine the algorithm for implementation details
For those who are interested about the initial risk found SPECIFICALLY in Mobius ORB V3(B) that I posted above, here's what I know.

Code:
input InitialRisk = 1.00; #hint InitialRisk: Amount of Risk your will to take opening a trade.
According to Mobius the author of V3(B), the initial risk lines are set according to your risk tolerance depending on the underlying security being traded. He typically uses 2 on /ES, 4 on /NQ, etc depending on how volatile the underlying market is. When the market is ultra volatile that level is adjusted accordingly. Most folks here have not seen what volatile conditions mean, the flash crash of 2010 was one such outlier event. It was phenomenal
 
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HighBredCloud

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@tomsk interesting stuff...So I guess my next question is...By upping the initial risk from 1.0 to say 2.0 to where BenTen original ORB in this thread...What possible set of indicators would be recommended to take the trade early and not wait for the ORB breakout to happen? Also as you know that many traders wait the first 15 min to place the trade vs 30 min...changing the time to 9:45 from 10 only seems to affect the ORH and ORL...I believe the yellow line still stays the same...
 
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anycolour

Member
Can I please get links for the ORB (What does it even stand for? Is it Open Range Breakout?) and Pivots Mobius uses? So many stuff comes up, that I don't know what is what. Thanks
 
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anycolour

Member
Thank you! What is considered the Opening Range? The 1st hour after cash open/regular trading at 9:30am Eastern Time?
 
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tomsk

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The way that Mobius uses it, his opening range setting should be configured as default in the study, 1st 30 minutes of the day. Read the study, it's all in there including his extended notes on how he interprets it

Code:
input OrBegin  = 0930.0; #hint OrBegin: Beginning for Period of Opening Range Breakout.
input OrEnd    = 1000.0; #hint OrEnd: End of Period of Opening Range Breakout.
 
switchfire

switchfire

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Does anyone have any suggested SuperTrend settings to use in conjunction with ORB? I'll probably go with the 5 & 15 min charts, as I'm trading /MES contracts. Does Mobius say which time frames he uses this on? Forgive me if I missed it somewhere, as I've been reading about this all night lol. Really interested in this indicator and can't wait to test it out. Thanks!
 
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tomsk

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@switchfire Sounds like you may be new to ORB so let me inject some info to being you up to speed

The ORB study is plotted for Regular Trading Hours from 9:30 to 4:00 daily with the opening range typically the first 30 minutes of trading when the overnight orders are cleared and any market moving news is released. ORB was designed to start at the cash open. Any other time and it’s just a high low timed range with no real value.

Opening Range is the overnight distribution and occurs within the first 30 minutes of trading. The high and low of that range are the boundaries. Breaking those extremes is the ORB opening range breakout. The mean of the first 5 minutes compared to the opening range determines with about 70% accuracy the closing direction for the day.
 
switchfire

switchfire

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Thanks Tom. Yeah this is what i gathered from my reading. My questions remain the same :)
 
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tomsk

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Well I can tell you that Mobius does not use SuperTrend in conjunction with the ORB, there's absolutely nothing to stop you from doing do if you feel that gives you an edge. Why not experiment with that first and then decide. Best of luck!
 
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jcga1981

New member
Hello, could you tell me why when I add the study the chart is going extremely slow? Do I have to change something in the settings? Thank you!
 
switchfire

switchfire

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Hello, could you tell me why when I add the study the chart is going extremely slow? Do I have to change something in the settings? Thank you!
@jcga19jcg try upping your memory. Before you log in, there's a cog button to change app settings.
 
switchfire

switchfire

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Well I can tell you that Mobius does not use SuperTrend in conjunction with the ORB, there's absolutely nothing to stop you from doing do if you feel that gives you an edge. Why not experiment with that first and then decide. Best of luck!
Sorry, i didn't mean to imply that if i did.
 
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Ty199

New member
Can you take the Green Risk On ORH and Red Risk on ORL bubbles off ? They block the candles some times. I tried in the setting to take them off but everything goes but the bubbles. All others are fine, well maybe the White RO bubbles also.
 

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