/ES Trading Strategy on ThinkorSwim

blakecmathis

blakecmathis

Member
Warehouse
Did not see edge and did not trade because of market setup: Huge gap up to ATH resistance in a bull market. -This usually results in sideways action and/or expanding triangle with choppy small range action
Was focused on analysis and other things. Here is layout for today price action

I just wanted to say I really appreciate all your help, input, and analysis with this set up man. Really learning a lot and taking it all in.
 
S

skynetgen

Active member
Warehouse
Today is Friday, pre-holiday weekend. I dont really like market playing as odds off choppy ranged without clean setups are very high.
The fast low volume fake out pullback to 3055 by 10, base, W and rally would be preferred play thesis. Very likely market will die in PM
Here is premarket thesis

 
Last edited by a moderator:
S

skynetgen

Active member
Warehouse
@skynetgen Can you send a link to the chart like your set up
IT is the chart setup black posted. I only changed personal layout preference (like colors and such). The MFO study in this thread I posted above. The only new thing here is volume profile : daily on 1000t and weekly on 2000t. its a built-in TOS study

Its not that I mind sharing it. ITs just I believe it would lead to confusion. The blakecmathis settings is original one and the one I am working with. When/if I figure out a way to meaningfully improve on his setup I will post it here. but the personal tweaks over his clean setup might be counterproductive
 
blakecmathis

blakecmathis

Member
Warehouse
Made some minor changes on the 1000t chart to help clean up the lower studies a bit and remove the over-abundance of dashed-line levels. Just a matter of personal preference. I like keeping my charts simple and clean.


 
T

traderintheroom

New member
Thanks for sharing this strategy. I’ve been practicing in sim however once backtested I would be using ETF equivalent ; SPY.
Right now I’m just keeping SPY (1 minute) up In bottom right instead of the shorter tick chart for trade execution since free commissions. I use mainly the 1000 tick /ES for trade decisions.

Anything wrong with trading the ETF versus /ES future contract intraday? They seem to mirror each other extremely closely.
 
blakecmathis

blakecmathis

Member
Warehouse
@traderintheroom I've had success in the past using that same setup man. The one reason I moved away from it was because they mirror each other so closely, that I felt like I wasn't getting much out of it. And on a few occasions I got burned trading ES on SPY signals.
 
blakecmathis

blakecmathis

Member
Warehouse
@traderintheroom However, a buddy of mine lives and dies trading ES with SPY 1min as a part of his strategy.
 
S

skynetgen

Active member
Warehouse
Was not trading /ES on monday due to the low range/low volume setup. However I did do thesis and in retrospect it was correct. Spent some time analyzing the signals and trying to improve. Finding a good oscillator to compliment wave trend so far was not successful. Just turning on RSI display is the simplest way you can add oscillator if you want more signals. However I believe less signals is better- more reliable is what we want

So far my conclusion are :
  • Respect wave trend signals on 1000t, but dont jump on it right away -that signal is often early (which is good btw) -wait for clarity in price action
  • Do not go against 2000t STCCI. MFO on 2000t is not very usefull. WT on 2000t is ok as confirmation
  • PSAR with 0.01 acceleration factor is decent additional confirmation and stop line .
  • Volume profile is very useful on tick chart (just like everywhere else imho).

 
Last edited:
S

skynetgen

Active member
Warehouse
Was busy today with a gapper play I tracked from the open. So my /ES attention and focus suffered and so did the /ES scalp results. I did not capitalize on the open BO, got stopped out on first short and closed prematurely 2nd short (to get break even on /ES) . - This is example how lack of focus can fail you even if you 100% correct technically.

However I think today was extremely interesting day for analysis as it was trending day both ways Unlike previous days which were of ranged character. It highlights important of using confirmation om 2000t and not just blindly knee jerking on first signal

 
blakecmathis

blakecmathis

Member
Warehouse
Had a little voice in my head from @skynetgen saying "CCI confirmation" all morning and it kept me out of some false signals and bad positions. I did go short at 3096.50 (risky, just bad overall) and bailed after taking an even point. I cant tell you why I exited, just a gut feeling. After entering short @ 3100.25 I panicked with the support @ 3098.50 and exited my position. Clearly I should have held. Gotta become more disciplined and let my winning trades win.

 
T

TradeUp

New member
VIP
Was busy today with a gapper play I tracked from the open. So my /ES attention and focus suffered and so did the /ES scalp results. I did not capitalize on the open BO, got stopped out on first short and closed prematurely 2nd short (to get break even on /ES) . - This is example how lack of focus can fail you even if you 100% correct technically.

However I think today was extremely interesting day for analysis as it was trending day both ways Unlike previous days which were of ranged character. It highlights important of using confirmation om 2000t and not just blindly knee jerking on first signal

@skynetgen thank you for your analysis. It's helping me learn. I have one question though, did you draw the Trend Channel lines by hand or is that an indicator? If it's an indicator do mind sharing just that indicator? Thanks so much.
 
S

skynetgen

Active member
Warehouse
@skynetgen thank you for your analysis. It's helping me learn. I have one question though, did you draw the Trend Channel lines by hand or is that an indicator? If it's an indicator do mind sharing just that indicator? Thanks so much.
Its a drawing tool in TOS. It helps to draw channel off 3 points - but you have to give it 3 points
 
T

traderintheroom

New member
I have been tweaking with the settings today attempting to use SPY vs. /ES without great success. Far less trade signals. Any ideas how to covert to use SPY?
 
blakecmathis

blakecmathis

Member
Warehouse
I don't wanna be Captain Hindsight or anything but these ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangle formations occur almost every single day with ES. I wasn't aware of this pattern until @skynetgen mentioned it today. Time to add a tool to the toolbox. Seems to be a pretty good indicator of a breakout.



 

Top