Clarity and advice

MBF

MBF

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Hi anyone and everyone,

I am getting a little confused and overwhelmed here and this has been an ongoing problem for me. I am trying to figure out which MAs are more eyeballed as entries and exits. Lately, I have been using the hourly 50 and 200 for day trading targets. I shouldn't say using, but more like experimenting. I'm having a hard time with this. I use premarket as signals with other stuff but honestly, I am trying very hard to be as simple as possible and learn without all the bells and whistles and then integrate them later on. I guess what I am trying to say is, what do you guys use when charting out lower time frames? There are so many choices, how do you know which ones are the most reliable? Is it different for each symbol? Do you look at all the MAs on the hourly and just use the ones that specific symbol seems to follow or is there a rigid set of MAs? I don't know, I think I'm overwhelmed. Any help would be greatly appreciated. I don't know if this is the right place to ask this as this might be just TOS script stuff but thought I'd give it a go.o_O:unsure::eek:
 
BenTen

BenTen

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Just talking about moving averages alone, here are the ones I'm using:
  1. EMA: 20, 50, and 300 (this is solely for the lower timeframe. You can replace the 300 ema with 200 ema depending on what you like better).
  2. As far as daily and weekly goes, I'm using 20 EMA, 50, and 200 SMA.
Everything comes with experiment and trading it live. If you're not comfortable with using real money, then I would use a paper trading account and take action then and there. That way, you can get a feel of how things go. Backtesting in after-hours can only do so much. You have to experience it for yourself.
 
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imnobody

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Honestly nobody can tell you, it's basically all experimentation. throw something on there(chart) and do some backtesting to see if there's consistency. I wouldn't, personally, put much emphasis on moving averages besides gauging trend perhaps and even then they can be utterly worthless if you're in a chopping market. As for the most widely used yeah I do believe 50 and 200 as well as 20 are most common. As for different markets, yes I think different ones work on certain markets more than others, it's all pretty relative and just fooling around sticking stuff here and there and seeing which seems to illicit positive results pretty consistently seems to be my way of getting anywhere.
 
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horserider

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All indicators are reliable. They show what th math tells them to show. But the market does not care what the indicators are saying. The market does follow patterns. Show what you are doing and maybe some suggestions can be made. First suggestion is Look into support / resistance.
 
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imnobody

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also, if you want to be one of those weirdos(like myself) you might start putting Fibonacci numbers everywhere and seeing how those results work out.
 
MBF

MBF

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Just talking about moving averages alone, here are the ones I'm using:
  1. EMA: 20, 50, and 300 (this is solely for the lower timeframe. You can replace the 300 ema with 200 ema depending on what you like better).
  2. As far as daily and weekly goes, I'm using 20 EMA, 50, and 200 SMA.
Everything comes with experiment and trading it live. If you're not comfortable with using real money, then I would use a paper trading account and take action then and there. That way, you can get a feel of how things go. Backtesting in after-hours can only do so much. You have to experience it for yourself.
Thanks @BenTen. I'll take a look at that 300, thats a new one to me. Much appreciated. 🧠
 
MBF

MBF

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Honestly nobody can tell you, it's basically all experimentation. throw something on there(chart) and do some backtesting to see if there's consistency. I wouldn't, personally, put much emphasis on moving averages besides gauging trend perhaps and even then they can be utterly worthless if you're in a chopping market. As for the most widely used yeah I do believe 50 and 200 as well as 20 are most common. As for different markets, yes I think different ones work on certain markets more than others, it's all pretty relative and just fooling around sticking stuff here and there and seeing which seems to illicit positive results pretty consistently seems to be my way of getting anywhere.
Okay, so I am going down the right path then. Guess its all part of the learning curve. Thank you.(y)
 
MBF

MBF

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also, if you want to be one of those weirdos(like myself) you might start putting Fibonacci numbers everywhere and seeing how those results work out.
15 minute fibs are decent. Somehow sometimes I see it showing a lot of f#[email protected] Probably just my trust issues. 😏😋
 
MBF

MBF

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All indicators are reliable. They show what th math tells them to show. But the market does not care what the indicators are saying. The market does follow patterns. Show what you are doing and maybe some suggestions can be made. First suggestion is Look into support / resistance.
Okay let me show ... hold on.
 
S

skynetgen

Active member
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Hi anyone and everyone,

I am getting a little confused and overwhelmed here and this has been an ongoing problem for me. I am trying to figure out which MAs are more eyeballed as entries and exits. Lately, I have been using the hourly 50 and 200 for day trading targets. I shouldn't say using, but more like experimenting. I'm having a hard time with this. I use premarket as signals with other stuff but honestly, I am trying very hard to be as simple as possible and learn without all the bells and whistles and then integrate them later on. I guess what I am trying to say is, what do you guys use when charting out lower time frames? There are so many choices, how do you know which ones are the most reliable? Is it different for each symbol? Do you look at all the MAs on the hourly and just use the ones that specific symbol seems to follow or is there a rigid set of MAs? I don't know, I think I'm overwhelmed. Any help would be greatly appreciated. I don't know if this is the right place to ask this as this might be just TOS script stuff but thought I'd give it a go.o_O:unsure::eek:
Well I evolved (or devolved?) to ignore moving averages as entry/exits. I only use them to trail the trend I already entered (based on other factors). And Ideally i take profits and get out even before MAs turn (they are lagging) - based on other things. And other price based indicators (MACD/RSI) etc i only use as confirmation for finer entry - not use them as basis for setups.
Imho price action by itself is a lie - it doesnt reflect true value or true direction of money flow most of the time. More like a broken clock - it is occasionally right but most often its not
Market structure is non-linear and fractal nature - no moving average can describe them. As all of price+ma based indicators (yeah even fancy ones like Ehlers) fundamentally model price action as some sort of cyclical process with well defined function - which its not.

To give a good place to start your thinking I would point to this :
https://readtheticker.smugmug.com/Business/IndicatorLibrary/i-FLGNBdr/0/O/MarketPhasesCyclesv2.png?lastmodified=201909300000
(ignore the gann angles - just focus on what you see as a structure).

Another thing I want to point is: its is of extreme importance to understand Timeframes you are trading on (and its paramount to use at least three: 1)large TF 2) setup TF 3) entry/exit timeframe ). How its structured and the confluence of factors at pivot points on it. Intraday and intraweek trading imho required understanding of gaps, intraday market timing, intraweek inflections, options expirations and more
 
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MBF

MBF

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Well I evolved (or devolved?) to ignore moving averages as entry/exits. I only use them to trail the trend I already entered (based on other factors). And Ideally i take profits and get out even before MAs turn (they are lagging) - based on other things.
Imho price action by itself is a lie - it doesnt reflect true value or true direction of money flow most of the time. More like a broken clock - it is occasionally right but most often its not
Market structure is non-linear and fractal nature - no moving average can describe them. As all of price+ma based indicators (yeah even fancy ones like Ehlers) fundamentally model price action as some sort of cyclical process with well defined function - which its not.

To give a good place to start your thinking I would point to this :
https://readtheticker.smugmug.com/Business/IndicatorLibrary/i-FLGNBdr/0/O/MarketPhasesCyclesv2.png?lastmodified=201909300000
(ignore the gann angles - just focus on what you see as a structure).
Oof! That hurt! I have a penchant for Brooks, Grimes and Biggs. I have been really interested in reading the tape but ... isnt that a form of price action? Let me read what you sent. Im getting ahead of myself. Thank you.
 
markos

markos

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@MBF All of the suggestions above are good. I've used fibs. Sometimes they've been dead on. Alluding to the above statement, all indicators are reliable, but the just indicate. It's up to you to interpret. That's the tuition you'll pay to the U of Wall Street.
 
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MBF

MBF

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Well I evolved (or devolved?) to ignore moving averages as entry/exits. I only use them to trail the trend I already entered (based on other factors). And Ideally i take profits and get out even before MAs turn (they are lagging) - based on other things. And other price based indicators (MACD/RSI) etc i only use as confirmation for finer entry - not use them as basis for setups.
Imho price action by itself is a lie - it doesnt reflect true value or true direction of money flow most of the time. More like a broken clock - it is occasionally right but most often its not
Market structure is non-linear and fractal nature - no moving average can describe them. As all of price+ma based indicators (yeah even fancy ones like Ehlers) fundamentally model price action as some sort of cyclical process with well defined function - which its not.

To give a good place to start your thinking I would point to this :
https://readtheticker.smugmug.com/Business/IndicatorLibrary/i-FLGNBdr/0/O/MarketPhasesCyclesv2.png?lastmodified=201909300000
(ignore the gann angles - just focus on what you see as a structure).

Another thing I want to point is: its is of extreme importance to understand Timeframes you are trading on (and its paramount to use at least three: 1)large TF 2) setup TF 3) entry/exit timeframe ). How its structured and the confluence of factors at pivot points on it. Intraday and intraweek trading imho required understanding of gaps, intraday market timing, intraweek inflections, options expirations and more
I enter on a 2 min, with the 5 and 15 up. I have hourlys up on another screen. I mark out gaps. I use support and resist as pivots?
Im going to read the post you sent.
 
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skynetgen

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Oof! That hurt! I have a penchant for Brooks, Grimes and Biggs. I have been really interested in reading the tape but ... isnt that a form of price action? Let me read what you sent. Im getting ahead of myself. Thank you.
I didnt say anything about tape reading. I am talking more about understanding market structure and flow on a chose timeframe. And on timeframe I am focusing doing tape reading is irrelevant (at least for me - just clouds my judgement).
 
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MBF

MBF

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I didnt say anything about tape reading. I am talking more about understanding market structure and flow on a chose timeframe. And on timeframe I am focusing doing tape reading is irrelevant (at least for me - just clouds my judgement).
Right, I read your link as "read the tape" not "read the ticker".
 
MBF

MBF

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@MBF All of the suggestions above are good. I've used fibs. Sometimes they've been dead on. Alluding to the above statement, all indicators are reliable, but the just indicate. It's up to you to interpret. That's the tuition you'll pay to the U of Wall Street.
My brain hurts.
 
markos

markos

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I lean on price action but on my indicators as well.
Try changing your TheoRSI all the way down to 8, but not lower. Just watch from there.

Definitely forget about the Gann Angles. The rest of that is right on.
 
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MBF

MBF

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hmmm, I wonder if i could save some grief by simply marking out the ATR and then using the timeframes MAs that fit into that ATR? 🧐
 
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skynetgen

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And just to add more meat. ever seen this:



Now think how moving average behave and often they are lying about true nature of a move. And how often your fib/support/resistance would fail in this. They would be right - sometimes! But think about all the other times where its "a breakout" - ups not. Or that is a new trend! - gotcha!
 
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